Ifo study finds diesel tax rebate pass-through fell short as German fuel subsidy ends tonight
The German fuel tax rebate expires at midnight, and an Ifo Institute analysis shows that while petrol discounts largely reached drivers, only 12 of the 16.7 cents per litre were passed on for diesel.
Pass-through rates
The Munich-based Ifo Institute calculated that the tax rebate, introduced in May to cushion the impact of high fuel prices driven by the Iran war, was only partially passed on to consumers. For diesel, the pass-through averaged 12 cents per litre up to 25 June, well below the 16.7-cent tax cut. Super E5 and Super E10 saw pass-throughs of 17 and 16 cents respectively, close to the full reduction.
Damit wurde der Tankrabatt beim Superbenzin nahezu vollständig an die Autofahrerinnen und Autofahrer weitergegeben, beim Diesel lag die Weitergabe bei rund 73 Prozent.
- Super E5
- 17 cents per litre
- Super E10
- 16 cents per litre
- Diesel
- 12 cents per litre
Industry pushback
The mineral oil industry association en2x rejected the findings. Its chief executive, Christian Küchen, insisted that member companies had passed on the full 17-cent reduction from day one. The association representing independent and mid-sized petrol stations, bft, called the Ifo study "populism" and argued that comparing German prices with those in France, as the institute did, was invalid due to fundamental market differences.
Die Tankstellengesellschaften im en2x haben mit der Einführung des so genannten Tankrabatts die Preise um 17 Cent je Liter gesenkt. Der Tankrabatt wurde durchweg und in voller Höhe an die Tankkundschaft weitergegeben.
A separate investigation by the Monopolkommission, published about two weeks ago, also concluded that the rebate was not fully passed on, though its estimates for diesel were slightly higher and for petrol slightly lower than the Ifo figures.
Price expectations at the pump
The tax rebate ends at midnight between Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the bft expects pump prices to rise only around midday on Wednesday, because a 12-hour rule prevents immediate price increases at midnight. Board chairman Carsten Müller said that raising prices on Tuesday afternoon was also not feasible, as large oil companies feared public backlash.
On Sunday, the ADAC reported a nationwide daily average of 1.845 euros per litre for Super E10 and 1.765 euros for diesel. The motoring club noted that both fuels had become slightly more expensive in recent days but saw no reason for sharp increases given falling crude oil prices. It urged that price adjustments should not be applied abruptly on 1 July as long as cheaper-taxed fuel remains in storage tanks.
Cost and consumer warnings
The measure cost the state around 1.6 billion euros over May and June. Ifo researcher Christian Gréus said the incomplete diesel pass-through meant that part of that sum ended up with oil companies. The institute considers the expiry of the rebate to be the right decision.
Die unvollständige Weitergabe beim Diesel bedeutet, dass ein Teil davon bei den Mineralölkonzernen gelandet ist.
Ramona Pop, head of the Federation of German Consumer Organisations, warned that the end of the rebate must not become a starting signal for extra profits. The Ifo also noted that a potential US-Iran agreement could help normalise fuel prices regardless.
