Ukrainian drone campaign severs Crimea's fuel supply, forcing rationing and 10-hour queues

The logistics backbone under fire

Ukrainian forces have carried out a sustained campaign of drone strikes targeting the main road and rail corridor linking Rostov-on-Don to Crimea via occupied Mariupol. Clément Molin, an analyst at the French think tank Atum Mundi, described the route as "basically the backbone of Russian occupation in the south." He told the BBC that Ukraine had conducted 300 drone strikes on trucks, including 30 fuel tankers, since the start of May, with the tempo intensifying in early June.

The road is basically the backbone of Russian occupation in the south.

The sea route to Crimea has been rendered too dangerous after Ukrainian strikes disabled several ferries serving the peninsula. The Kerch Bridge, the other major link to mainland Russia, is considered too risky for fuel trucks. Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard University's Davis Center and an expert on Russia's oil industry, told the BBC that putting a truck full of diesel on the Kerch Bridge right now would be "asking for trouble."

Fuel rationing and 10-hour queues

At the vast majority of Crimean petrol stations, locals can now purchase only up to 20 litres of fuel per person using prepaid vouchers, when fuel is available at all. Videos circulating on social media show long lines of vehicles at stations across the region, with residents reporting they routinely wait up to 10 hours. One Simferopol resident told the independent website Bereg that he now walks to work and joked about buying a horse.

I walk to work now. Of course, this is less convenient than driving, but not a huge problem. All I've got to do now is buy a horse!

Russian tourists who arrived in Crimea before the crisis began are struggling to find fuel to leave. The situation is acute enough that local Moscow-installed authorities have launched a special hotline to assist stranded visitors. Reports also indicate that petrol and diesel prices have skyrocketed due to the shortages.

Kremlin acknowledges the problem

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted on Monday that there are "certain problems" with fuel supplies, while attempting to blame unfounded panic-buying. The Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, went further on 5 June, conceding that it did not appear possible to fully satisfy fuel demand. He added that hundreds of buses would not be leaving depots due to the shortages.

Unfortunately, it does not appear possible to fully satisfy the demand for fuel at the current moment.

The Russian energy ministry, cited by state news agency TASS, attributed the disruptions to "a growing number of enemy air attacks" on fuel and energy enterprises. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Russia is currently producing less oil than originally planned, citing unscheduled repairs without specifying causes.

Crisis spreads beyond Crimea

What began as a Crimean problem has expanded to other regions. Czech media report that fuel purchase limits have been introduced at some petrol stations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow, Tver, and Yaroslavl regions, and even in Karelia near the Finnish border. The Russian government has also imposed a ban on kerosene exports, initially in place until the end of November.

Military consequences

Pro-Kremlin military analysis account Rybar posted on Telegram that the strikes emptying fuel stations for civilians are also affecting supplies to troops in the south. The logistics crisis, Rybar noted, does not distinguish between military and civilian needs. On 7 June, a Ukrainian strike damaged a key bridge in Chonhar, further complicating the supply picture. Ukraine also struck the Semykolodezkaya oil plant in Crimea on Sunday night, sparking a fire at a base used to store fuel reserves for the Russian military, and hit the Grushovaya oil transshipment base near Novorossiysk, one of the largest such hubs in southern Russia.