Colombia braces for polarized presidential runoff with De la Espriella holding 7.7-point lead

First round sets stage with tight margins

On 31 May, a record 57.88% of eligible voters turned out for a first round that left no candidate with an absolute majority. Iván Cepeda, the leftist senator from Pacto Histórico, received 9,703,921 votes (40.99%), while Abelardo de la Espriella, the far-right leader of Defensores de la Patria, took 10,366,143 (43.78%), a gap of 662,222. No centrist or traditional right-wing candidate crossed the 7% threshold. De la Espriella prevailed in the central Andean highlands, while Cepeda won along both coasts, in the southern departments, and in Bogotá. Despite the regional alignment reflecting past elections, the far-right candidate made inroads in several zones that four years ago had given wide margins to the left.

Campaign descends into judicial crossfire

The five-week runoff has been dominated by legal attacks rather than programme debates. Cepeda lodged a criminal complaint with Colombian prosecutors and the International Criminal Court, accusing De la Espriella of crimes against humanity tied to paramilitarism two decades earlier. De la Espriella fired back with denunciations of vote-buying inside Cepeda's camp and alerted US authorities to an alleged 'narco-political' operation by the leftist candidate. As the exchanges escalated, no public debate was scheduled before election day, leaving voters to weigh the accusations alongside the rival security and economic visions.

Polls point to a right-wing surge

Two recent polls, AtlasIntel and Guarumo/Ecoanalítica, put De la Espriella at 52.2% favorability, roughly 7.7 points ahead of Cepeda's 44.5–45%. The numbers mark a sharp reversal: in March, traditional conservative Paloma Valencia led the center-right with 22.2% while De la Espriella languished at 15.4%. On Sunday, both candidates closed their campaigns. De la Espriella spoke from a stage shielded by bulletproof glass in Buga, calling the contest "a moral battle, a spiritual war." Cepeda rallied supporters in Barranquilla, warning that "fear and hate seek to impose themselves on hope."

This is not only a political battle, it is a moral battle, it is a spiritual war.

Fear and hate seek to impose themselves on hope.

What we need is security to work and to move forward.

One of the regions that can change the course of the election is the Caribbean. In the first round, Cepeda won by a narrow margin over De la Espriella in the region. There are departments like Cesar that were very close, with a difference of less than 1,000 votes.

Overseas voting swings into gear

The National Registry reports that 1,414,661 Colombians abroad are eligible to cast ballots in 253 voting posts across 67 countries. Voting began on Monday 15 June and continues through Sunday 21 June, the same day polls open in Colombia itself. Consulates will operate from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. local time. Between Monday and Saturday, 1,489 tables will be available; on election day the number rises to 2,181. Only the Colombian national ID, the yellow or digital cédula, is accepted; passports or other documents are not valid. Voters must have been registered at their consulate by the 30 April deadline.

Security and peace: competing blueprints

The election unfolds against Colombia's worst wave of violence in a decade, with frequent guerrilla attacks, massacres, and extortion. President Gustavo Petro's "total peace" policy, of which Cepeda was a key architect, has yielded little progress while armed groups have strengthened, according to analysts. De la Espriella promises to replace dialogue with force, pledging to subdue criminals "by reason or by force of law" and to be "firm against criminals, relentless against the corrupt, and inflexible in the face of terror." Cepeda is betting that voters will reject what he calls the politics of fear and maintain hope in a negotiated solution.