Colombia Votes in Polarized Presidential Election: Leftist Cepeda Leads, Runoff Expected
Colombians head to the polls Sunday in a deeply polarized presidential election, with leftist Iván Cepeda holding a clear polling lead but falling short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff, making a June 21 second round between the top two finishers almost certain.
Three main contenders
Fourteen candidates compete to succeed Gustavo Petro, whose four-year term ends in August. Three dominate the polls. Iván Cepeda, the 66-year-old senator and human rights defender from the ruling Pacto Histórico coalition, represents continuity of Petro’s leftist project. He promises to deepen social reforms, raise the minimum wage further, and pursue peace talks with armed groups. Abelardo de la Espriella, a 47-year-old millionaire lawyer known as “El Tigre,” channels far-right populism, vowing a security crackdown and praising strongman leaders like Donald Trump and Nayib Bukele. Paloma Valencia, a 50-year-old senator from the traditional conservative Centro Democrático party founded by ex-president Álvaro Uribe, proposes a hardline approach to crime but has struggled to consolidate the right-wing vote.
Polarization and violence
The campaign unfolded against a backdrop of rising political violence, including the 2025 assassination of precandidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, which echoed Colombia’s darkest electoral eras. More than 248,000 security personnel have been deployed to safeguard voting across 118,346 polling stations. Polls reflect a stark left–right split, with the political center—candidates Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo—polling below 4%. Around 10% of voters remain undecided.
The fear generated by the rise in the polls of the new right, led by Abelardo de la Espriella, with its populist and radical accent, pushed the entire left to regroup.
Runoff on June 21
No candidate is expected to clear the 50% threshold on Sunday, sending the top two to a June 21 runoff. Surveys indicate Cepeda will lead the first round with roughly 40%, followed by De la Espriella (above 30%) and Valencia (around 18%). A second round pits the left against a likely unified right, with early polls showing a technical tie and centrist voters—about 10%—determining the winner.
- First round of presidential election; polls suggest no candidate reaches 50%
- Runoff election between the two leading candidates
Petro's legacy on the ballot
Although barred by the constitution from seeking re-election, Gustavo Petro’s shadow looms large. His approval rating hovers near 49%, buoyed by poverty reduction, falling unemployment, and higher minimum wages, but his transformative agenda stalled in Congress and violence resurged. Cepeda campaigns as Petro’s ideological heir, while the opposition frames the vote as a rejection of the left’s four-year experiment.
The campaign revolves around Petro.
Regional significance
The election is a critical test for Latin America’s left, coming amid a string of right-wing victories in the region. A Cepeda win would bolster the bloc’s momentum, while a De la Espriella or Valencia victory would align Colombia with Washington’s hardline preferences and further erode the leftist tide.
