Colombia presidential election heads to runoff between hard-right 'Tiger' de la Espriella and leftist Cepeda

Colombia's presidential election is headed to a runoff on 21 June after a sharply polarized first-round vote on Sunday, setting up a contest between hard-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Ivan Cepeda. The vote came at the end of the bloodiest campaign in more than a decade, overshadowed by a surge in violence from armed groups.

First-round results

With over 98% of ballot boxes counted, de la Espriella led with approximately 44% of the vote, while Cepeda trailed with around 41%. Conservative senator Paloma Valencia, backed by former president Álvaro Uribe, finished a distant third with less than 7%. Because no candidate secured an absolute majority, the two frontrunners advance to the runoff.

We will change the history of Colombia forever. In the runoff we will defeat tyranny and absolutism.

De la Espriella's strong showing surprised observers, as pre-election polls had consistently placed him second behind Cepeda. His supporters celebrated with car caravans through central Bogotá, honking horns and waving national flags, while thousands gathered on the Barranquilla waterfront awaiting his arrival.

The candidates

De la Espriella, a 47-year-old millionaire lawyer, businessman, and singer who calls himself 'The Tiger,' campaigned as a political outsider and admirer of US President Donald Trump. He vowed a 'shock plan' to confront armed groups with air, land, and sea operations, including immediate bombing of what he called narco-terrorist camps. He campaigned behind bullet-proof glass amid security threats.

We'll start immediately with the bombing of narco-terrorist camps.

Cepeda, a 63-year-old human rights defender, philosopher, and senator, is the political heir of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. He has pledged to continue Petro's strategy of negotiating peace with dissident armed groups that dominate global cocaine production, while investing in social programs and putting the state 'at the service' of the excluded.

A violent campaign

Sunday's vote was the culmination of Colombia's most violent election campaign in over a decade. The race was marked by the assassination of a leading presidential candidate and a series of bomb attacks in the south of the country that left dozens dead. Car bombs, drone attacks, and attacks on civilians, soldiers, and police intensified in the weeks before the vote.

Kristin Wesemann, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Colombia office, described it as 'one of the worst waves of violence in recent years.' Experts say armed groups involved in drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion exploited Petro's peace negotiations to strengthen their positions.

Petro's legacy at stake

The election is widely seen as a referendum on Petro's four-year term. Colombia's first leftist president, constitutionally barred from seeking reelection, raised the minimum wage by 75%, expanded social programs, and reduced poverty. But critics say his 'total peace' strategy gave criminal groups free rein, fueling violence and record cocaine exports.

This government really strengthened armed groups by being so soft.

Path to the runoff

Valencia, who received about 6-7% of the vote, conceded defeat and announced her support for de la Espriella. The runoff on 21 June will see both candidates competing to win over the roughly 45% of eligible voters who abstained in the first round, many reportedly disillusioned by the polarized campaign climate. Some observers suggest the candidate who can project a more institutional image may be rewarded.