Polish voters reject a joint ruling-coalition ticket for 2027, new poll shows: 39.8% would consider it, 42.8% oppose
An SW Research survey reveals that more Poles oppose a unified electoral list for the four ruling parties than support it, complicating Donald Tusk’s path to re-election.
The question and the numbers
SW Research asked 800 adult Poles whether they would consider voting for a joint list of the Civic Coalition (KO), Polish People’s Party (PSL), Poland 2050 and the New Left in the 2027 parliamentary election. The responses, collected on 9–10 June 2026, were split: 39.8 percent said yes, 42.8 percent said no, and 17.4 percent had no opinion. The result means the number of opponents exceeds the number of supporters, a signal that merging the four government parties does not automatically bring electoral gain.
Men are less likely to consider voting for a common list (46%) than women (40%). The same opinion is shared by half of respondents aged 35–49 (51%) and almost as many with basic vocational education (50%). Rejection is more frequent among those earning over PLN 7,000 net (51%) and residents of towns of 20,000–99,000 inhabitants (46%).
Declining fortunes of junior partners
The debate about a joint ticket has been fuelled by the weak polling numbers of two coalition members. A recent Opinia24 survey put PSL at 2.7 percent and Poland 2050 at just 1.8 percent, both below the 5‑percent threshold needed to enter the Sejm. Those figures, if repeated in a real ballot, would wipe out both parties’ parliamentary representation. Proponents of a unified list argue it would prevent vote-splitting and secure a government majority, but the SW Research data casts doubt on that strategy.
The 2023 benchmark
In the October 2023 election, the three blocs that now form the government – KO, the Third Way alliance (PSL and Poland 2050) and the New Left – together captured 53.71 percent of the vote, translating into 248 of the 460 seats. Today’s declared willingness to support a merged list falls well short of that figure. Even if every supporter of the individual parties backed a single ticket, the combined score would be below the level that produced the current majority.
- Yes
- 39.8 %
- No
- 42.8 %
- Undecided
- 17.4 %
Tusk’s open door
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has repeatedly said his party is open to any proposal for cooperation from democratic partners, including joint electoral lists. “We will not persuade anyone; it will have to be a choice of the mind and the heart,” he stated earlier this year. Deputy minister Jacek Karnowski described the offer as an invitation, not a demand. However, the poll suggests that voters are not yet convinced that uniting the coalition’s factions would be a superior option.
What lies ahead
With the election still roughly eighteen months away, party strategists are weighing multiple scenarios. The pro-European narrative that a right‑wing victory could risk a “Polexit” – invoked after President Karol Nawrocki vetoed the SAFE programme implementation law in March – may be used to coax smaller partners onto a KO‑led list. But for now, the numbers do not add up to an easy path for Tusk’s camp.
