Israel and Hezbollah ceasefire falters as strikes continue, threatening the US-Iran peace deal

The ceasefire that barely held

On Friday afternoon, after a day of heavy clashes, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect around 4pm local time. The agreement was brokered by the US and Qatar, with help from Iran, and was confirmed by sources from Hezbollah, a senior Israeli official, and a US official. President Donald Trump later told NBC News he had instructed Israel to accept the truce.

You just gotta calm down sometimes and use your head.

Israeli ambassador Yechiel Leiter said Israel had "halted all offensive operations" and remained committed to an immediate ceasefire if Hezbollah honoured the deal. But the calm proved temporary.

Saturday’s strikes and the human toll

Less than 24 hours later, Israeli warplanes, drones, and artillery struck more than a dozen areas in southern Lebanon, many around the city of Nabatieh. The Lebanese state news agency reported at least 11 people killed, while other outlets cited between five and seven dead, including two children. The Israeli military said it was responding to more than 50 projectiles fired by Hezbollah at its forces overnight.

On Friday, before the ceasefire, exchanges had already killed at least 47 people in Lebanon and four Israeli soldiers. About 5% of Lebanese territory in the south remains under Israeli occupation, and roughly one million people are still displaced, according to the BBC.

The Swiss talks that never started

Negotiations between the US and Iran, scheduled to begin on Friday at the Buergenstock resort in Switzerland, were called off. A Swiss foreign ministry statement confirmed the postponement and said preparatory work was continuing. While no official reason was given, three diplomats told The New York Times that Iran withdrew because of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff was still reported to be heading to Switzerland, but Vice President JD Vance had dropped plans to attend. A White House spokesperson said an American delegation was prepared to depart at the first available opportunity. No new date has been announced.

A test for the interim deal

Earlier this week, President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had closed during the war, and committed to the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations" in Lebanon. Iran insists that any broader deal must include an end to Israeli military action in Lebanon, and it sees compliance there as a test of US leverage over Israel.

The United States has a commitment and responsibility to ensure the deal is upheld on all fronts.

Trump defended the accord on Truth Social, calling Iran "FINISHED!" and stressing that no money would flow during the 60-day interim period. But US intelligence officials, speaking anonymously to the Washington Post, expressed concern that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may try to undermine the agreement to sustain his own conflict in Lebanon.

Pressure from all sides

Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to continue military operations against Hezbollah, and Israeli forces have vowed to "continue to remove immediate threats". Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah linked further diplomacy to a comprehensive ceasefire. Analysts warned that tying the Lebanon front to the nuclear talks is risky. Former US official Mark Kimmitt called it "very, very unwise", saying Washington does not control Israel’s actions and the linkage could "blow back in Iran’s face".