Trump declares US-Iran ceasefire over after mutual strikes; Tehran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump declared the three-week-old US-Iran ceasefire dead on Wednesday after a night of tit-for-tat military strikes, while Tehran warned it could seal the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate two-for-one against any further American attacks.
Ceasefire declared dead
Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Donald Trump told reporters that the Memorandum of Understanding signed with Iran on 17 June was effectively over. "For me, I think it's over," he said when asked if the truce had collapsed. The US president accused Tehran of negotiating in bad faith, calling its leaders "scum," "liars," and "sick people" who would use a nuclear weapon if they had one. Despite the heated rhetoric, Trump insisted he did not expect a return to full-scale war. "I don't think it will start again. I think it will end very quickly. They hit some ships, and we retaliated much more strongly," he said.
Whatever happens will be resolved very quickly, and we will only make the situation safer, including with regard to oil.
Military escalation
On Tuesday, Iranian forces attacked three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US Central Command. Washington responded with strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets, including air-defence systems, command-and-control networks, and anti-ship missile capabilities on Kharg Island. Iran's Revolutionary Guard then launched a combined missile and drone operation against 85 American military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, claiming to have shot down a US MQ-9 drone. Kuwait confirmed its air defences were intercepting hostile projectiles, and Bahrain also activated its alert systems.
They are behaving very badly.
Hormuz closure threat
Iranian state media, citing an unnamed source, reported that Tehran's current orders are to close the Strait of Hormuz and to retaliate at a ratio of two to one, for every Iranian target struck, two enemy targets will be hit. The same source warned the conflict could be extended to the Red Sea, paralysing global oil flows. The strait is the main maritime route linking Middle Eastern oil producers to world markets.
Under the memorandum, Tehran committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but its recent attacks on ships near the strait violate that commitment and threaten to disrupt the restoration of energy supplies.
Oil markets react
Brent crude jumped 5.92% to $78.55 a barrel shortly after Trump's remarks, while West Texas Intermediate rose 5.32% to $74.19. Later in the day, Brent touched $79.50, a 7% gain. Trump downplayed the spike, saying "oil will be very available and easy to get" and noting that the US has ample supply.
- US and Iran sign Memorandum of Understanding, starting a 60-day negotiation window.
- Iran attacks three commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
- US strikes more than 80 Iranian military targets, including Kharg Island.
- Iran hits 85 US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones.
- Trump declares the ceasefire over at the NATO summit in Ankara.
- Brent crude surges 5.92% to $78.55, later touching $79.50.
NATO and diplomatic fallout
At the close of the Ankara summit, Trump hailed "enormous unity" among allies and progress toward the 5%-of-GDP defence-spending target. NATO adopted a common position backing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and reiterating that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the renewed hostilities "further complicate already difficult negotiations" and announced talks with Gulf states. The US also reimposed economic sanctions on Iranian oil, while Trump signalled he was inclined to lift restrictions blocking Turkey from the F-35 programme.
