EFL Barometer: Sentiment in the TSL Industry Declines for the Second Consecutive Time

The latest readings of the EFL Barometer point to a further cooling of sentiment among entrepreneurs in the transport, forwarding, and logistics industry. The sub-index for the TSL sector in Q1 2026 reached a level of 52 points, representing a drop of 1.3 points compared to the previous quarter. This marks the second consecutive time the overall sentiment indicator has declined. Despite the clear downward trend, the situation in the industry is not alarming. For over two years, starting from Q4 2023, the index has continuously remained above the magic threshold of 50 points. This threshold, known as the limited growth threshold or optimism threshold, separates negative from positive assessments. Remaining above it means that entrepreneurs still see room for development, although their optimism is becoming increasingly moderate and cautious. A key positive signal from the study is that as many as 22.5% of firms in the TSL sector forecast growth in sales and orders in the coming quarter. This data indicates that one in five enterprises in this key economic sector still hopes for an improvement in the business climate. The TSL sector has for centuries been a sensitive economic barometer. Even in ancient times, increased traffic on trade routes, such as the Silk Road, signaled the flourishing of empires. In the industrial era, the development of railways and maritime transport fueled globalization. Today, after a period of severe shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which brought record profits followed by supply chain problems, the industry has entered a phase of normalization and greater uncertainty.The barometer results suggest the industry is entering the new year in a mood of anticipation. Firms, having learned from the fluctuations of recent years, are approaching business decisions more selectively. This applies particularly to investment plans, which are being implemented with great caution. Such an attitude among entrepreneurs is typical for a period when economic prospects remain unclear, and risk factors—both internal and geopolitical—are still present. EFL has been monitoring these sentiments for years, providing valuable data for analysts and decision-makers. The current reading confirms that after a period of dynamic recovery, the transport sector is entering a phase of consolidation and cautious optimism, with a clear hope among some firms for better results in the near future.22,5% — of TSL firms forecast sales growthTrend of the EFL sub-index for the TSL sector: Q4 2023: >50, Q1 2026: 52, Q4 2025: 53.3