Can Xue and Anne Carson lead betting odds as Swedish Academy prepares 2026 Literature Nobel

Favourites in the betting markets

The Swedish Academy in Stockholm will reveal the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday, 8 October at 13:00 Central European Time. Chinese avant-garde author Can Xue and Canadian poet Anne Carson have emerged as the primary favourites at international bookmakers, each carrying 10/1 odds at Ladbrokes. European betting agencies list Can Xue at 5/1 and Carson at 7/1. Can Xue, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua, was previously longlisted twice for the International Booker Prize for her novel Love in the New Millennium and the short story collection I Live in the Slums. Carson, aged 76, is known for works such as her 1998 verse novel Autobiography of Red.

Other prominent authors placed near the top of the betting boards include Australian author Gerald Murnane and American novelist Thomas Pynchon, both at 16/1 at Ladbrokes, and Japanese writer Haruki Murakami at 14/1. Several contenders stand at 20/1 odds, including Canadian novelist Margaret Atwood, Mexican author Cristina Rivera Garza, Spanish writer Enrique Vila-Matas, Antiguan-American author Jamaica Kincaid, Portuguese novelist Lídia Jorge, Russian writer Lyudmila Ulitskaya, and French author Michel Houellebecq.

Robin Olenius, public relations director at Betsson, described the betting patterns that develop around the annual prize:

A recurring pattern is that authors who have strong support from both literary experts and bettors tend to remain among the main contenders year after year. Can Xue, Anne Carson and Gerald Murnane fit this pattern. In contrast, literary stars with greater commercial exposure can generate high expectations and rise into the top five, only to drop in the rankings the following year.

Spanish-language contenders and regional representation

Spanish author Enrique Vila-Matas represents the sole Spaniard appearing among the main favourites in the betting lists, holding odds between 20/1 and 21/1. Vila-Matas, born in Barcelona in 1948, was longlisted for the International Booker Prize in 2020 for Mac and His Problem. Other Spanish-language authors listed by bookmakers include Argentine writer César Aira at 9/1, Mexican author Cristina Rivera Garza, Chilean writer Benjamín Labatut at 21/1, and Colombian novelist Juan Gabriel Vásquez at 27/1. Rivera Garza received the Pulitzer Prize in 2024 for Liliana's Invincible Summer, her memoir investigating the murder of her sister.

Spanish-language literature has seen 11 laureates since the prize began, but none since Peruvian author Mario Vargas Llosa won in 2010. Prior to Vargas Llosa, Mexican poet Octavio Paz received the prize in 1990. Five Spanish authors have previously won the literature award, beginning with José Echegaray in 1904, followed by Jacinto Benavente in 1922, Juan Ramón Jiménez in 1956, Vicente Aleixandre in 1977, and Camilo José Cela in 1989.

Recent laureates and Academy track record

The literature prize has been awarded 118 times to 122 individuals between 1901 and 2025. Only 18 women have received the prize across its history. The Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter pointed to veteran American novelists such as Don DeLillo, Joyce Carol Oates, Marilynne Robinson, and Thomas Pynchon, noting that the Academy has not awarded an American fiction writer since Toni Morrison in 1993.

The Academy often selects laureates who were not frontrunners in bookmaker odds. In 2025, Hungarian author László Krasznahorkai received the award for his visionary prose. South Korean author Han Kang won in 2024, Norwegian writer Jon Fosse won in 2023, and French author Annie Ernaux won in 2022. The 2026 winner will receive a diploma, a medal, and prize money stated at 12 million Swedish kronor (approximately £900,000).