Andy Burnham confronts £4.7bn defence shortfall and calls for radical policies ahead of expected premiership

Poll pressure for radical shift

A seat-by-seat MRP poll of roughly 10,000 voters by Persuasion UK has alarmed Labour insiders. On its current trajectory, the party could win only 95 seats and 19% of the national vote, its worst result since 1918. But if the next leader embraces "cost of living populism", including rent controls, higher capital gains tax aligning with income tax rates, cheap bus fares, and an expansion of free school meals, the model projects a 34% vote share and 358 seats, delivering a parliamentary majority of 66. The poll is being circulated among Burnham’s advisers as evidence that economic radicalism can fend off Reform UK in key battlegrounds.

His instincts are economically interventionist, and he will act with radicalism to boost growth and living standards.

The devolution revolution

At the centre of Burnham’s agenda is a sweeping plan to devolve power away from Westminster. He proposes a “Number 10 North” in Manchester, designed to push authority down to regions. All parts of England, and possibly Wales, would gain greater control over planning, housing, industrial strategy, and even health. Mayors would oversee budgets with some locally raised revenue. The approach draws on Burnham’s record in Greater Manchester, where he brought bus networks under public control. He also favours introducing proportional representation, which could produce very different regional politics.

Angela Rayner, the former deputy Labour leader, used a speech on 1 July to endorse the vision and tout her own role in passing the Devolution Act in April.

We cannot build a new economy here without addressing one of the root causes of the old one’s failure. We are one of the most over-centralised countries in the developed world. Too many decisions affecting the many are made by too few.

Scotland demands clarity

SNP minister Ivan McKee welcomed the aim of reducing London-centrism but complained that Burnham’s speech lacked substance. He insisted any devolution must respect existing Scottish powers, but signalled readiness to collaborate on infrastructure and local growth deals. McKee added that the Starmer era had fallen short of constructive engagement and that he hoped a new prime minister would change that.

I have no idea what he means and I don’t think he knows what he means.

A defence black hole

Starmer’s parting gift to his would-be successor is a £4.7bn hole in the Defence Investment Plan. The outgoing prime minister insists that such gaps are routinely addressed at the next Budget, but Labour is now out of time. Burnham and his future chancellor must find the money at a moment when geopolitical risks are mounting. The Financial Times drew an uncomfortable parallel with the 1930s, noting that economic caution then left Britain dangerously under-armed. Burnham, briefed on the shape of the plan but not the funding detail, may feel that Starmer has added a needless complication to his inheritance.

The road to 20 July

Since Burnham’s leadership pitch on 29 June, the political calendar has filled quickly. The defence plan and Rayner’s intervention on 1 July, McKee’s response the next day, and the countdown to the expected handover on 20 July are shaping the first tests of his premiership.