Makerfield by-election could set Labour on path to leadership contest as Andy Burnham seeks return to Parliament

A single seat with national consequences

The parliamentary by-election in Makerfield on 18 June 2026 is far more than a local contest. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and a former MP (2001–2017), is the Labour candidate. If he wins, he returns to Westminster with the declared intention of challenging Keir Starmer for the party leadership and the premiership.

The constituency, a cluster of former mining towns between Liverpool and Manchester, counts roughly 76,000 voters. Polls open at 07:00 local time and close at 22:00, with a result expected overnight. The seat became vacant after the resignation of the sitting Labour MP.

The rise of the ‘King of the North’

Burnham earned his nickname in October 2020, when he publicly berated the central government for withholding funds during Covid lockdowns. Since then, he has positioned himself as the voice of England’s neglected north. On the campaign trail he told voters on 4 June, “I will seek to represent you at the highest possible level,” leaving little doubt about his ambitions.

“Voters in this constituency may be on the verge of writing a new script for British politics.”

A premier under siege

Keir Starmer took office in July 2024 after a sweeping Labour victory, but his popularity has since collapsed. A string of policy missteps, the scandal around Peter Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to Washington, and a brutal defeat in May’s local elections at the hands of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK have weakened him. Several ministers have quit, most recently Defence Secretary John Healey last week over a budget dispute.

“I am not going anywhere, I am going to fight.”

Starmer said this on Sky News from the G7 summit in Evian, but his grip is fragile. Within the party, both Burnham and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting are actively seeking the 81 MP endorsements needed to trigger a leadership contest. Streeting told the BBC, “We cannot continue in this uncertainty and paralysis, there will have to be a contest.”

Starmer’s olive branch, and Burnham’s refusal

On Wednesday, Starmer offered Burnham “an important role in government,” calling him “a fantastic asset for our party and for the country.” Burnham, according to British media, rejected the offer outright. The move was seen as an attempt to neutralise a rival before the by-election.

Reform UK lurks on the right

The main opponent in Makerfield is Robert Kenyon of Reform UK, which outperformed Labour in the constituency during May’s local elections. Kenyon has accused Burnham of using the seat as a stepping stone, and his campaign has been rattled by old sexist and homophobic social media posts. Nonetheless, polls give Burnham the edge, and analysts point to a clear “Burnham effect” that could carry him back to Parliament.