Flavio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil presidential first round as Liberal Party wins Senate

Presidential vote yields close runoff

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro took first place in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, securing 47.03% of the valid votes against 45.16% for incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The 1.87 percentage point gap marks the narrowest first-round presidential contest in Brazil since direct elections returned in 1989. Flavio Bolsonaro received 56 million votes, surpassing the tallies his father Jair Bolsonaro achieved in 2018 (49 million) and 2022 (51 million). Because neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold, the two will face each other in a second-round vote scheduled for 25 October. After results confirmed his lead, Flavio addressed supporters in Brasilia.

The end of the PT era has been declared, change in our country has arrived.

Conservative wave transforms Congress

Congressional ballots held simultaneously delivered substantial gains for the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), which became the largest single party in both legislative chambers. In the Federal Senate, the PL won 19 of the 54 seats contested on Sunday, expanding its presence from 15 to 28 seats in the 81-seat chamber. The Workers' Party (PT) maintained its 9 seats, while the Social Democratic Party (PSD) fell from 14 to 5 seats. In the Chamber of Deputies, the PL expanded from 98 to 121 seats, assisted by Nikolas Ferreira, who won re-election with 3 million votes. Several members of the Bolsonaro family won legislative seats, including former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro in the Senate, alongside Jair Renan in the lower house.

State governorships and market reaction

Right-wing candidates also secured outright victories in key gubernatorial races across Brazil on Sunday. Candidates from the Liberal Party won five governorships in the first round: Parana, where former judge Sergio Moro secured 50.1% of valid votes; Santa Catarina, where Jorginho Mello took 68.98%; alongside Rio Grande do Sul, Rondonia, and Roraima. In Sao Paulo, Governor Tarcisio de Freitas of Republicanos gained re-election in the first round with 62.85% (14.5 million votes) against Workers' Party challenger Fernando Haddad, who finished with 36.22%. Candidates aligned with Republicanos also won governorships in Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso. Following the election results on Monday morning, the Sao Paulo stock exchange opened with a gain of more than 8%.

Runoff dynamics and political alliances

Both campaigns now turn to the roughly 9.3 million votes cast for eliminated third-party candidates, who collectively won 7.79% of valid ballots. Augusto Cury placed third with 2.89%, followed by Renan Santos with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado with 2.18%. Candidate Romeu Zema, who gathered 0.27%, announced he will campaign against the Workers' Party, while Cury, Santos, and Caiado withheld immediate endorsements. Lula, seeking a fourth presidential term at age 80, spoke to supporters in Sao Paulo about overcoming the first-round deficit.

We are in extra time, and that is where we are going to convince the Brazilian people.

Lula's campaign faces the task of engaging voters who chose alternative candidates alongside the estimated 21% of the electorate who abstained from Sunday's vote. Flavio Bolsonaro campaigned on fiscal restraint, stricter public security, and a presidential pardon for his father Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence.