Romanian poll puts far-right AUR at 36.4%, PNL surges to second place as crisis reshapes electorate
A July 2026 opinion poll shows the opposition AUR party at 36.4%, with the National Liberal Party (PNL) rising sharply to 22.4% as two months of political turmoil mobilise voters and redraw party support.
Poll results
A survey by Agenția de Rating Politic (ARP), conducted between 30 June and 3 July 2026, places the nationalist AUR party first with 36.4% of voting intentions. The National Liberal Party (PNL) follows at 22.4%, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) at 17.9%, and the Save Romania Union (USR) at 10.5%. The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) polls at 4.9%, while SOS Romania falls to 2.9%. The figures exclude 16.4% undecided respondents and 14.8% who said they would not vote or did not answer.
Compared with ARP's April measurement, PNL recorded the largest gain, climbing 8.2 percentage points from 14.2%. AUR edged up 0.6 points from 35.8%, and PSD added 0.7 points from 17.2%. USR slipped 0.7 points from 11.2%, and smaller parties such as SOS (down 3.1 points) and POT (down 2 points) lost ground.
- AUR
- 36.4 %
- PNL
- 22.4 %
- PSD
- 17.9 %
- USR
- 10.5 %
- UDMR
- 4.9 %
- SOS
- 2.9 %
The Bolojan effect
ARP describes PNL as "the net winner of recent months in voting intention, attracting especially undecided voters, but also from smaller parties like USR or REPER." The party's surge is widely attributed to the image of its leader, Ilie Bolojan, the former interim prime minister. Analysts speak of a "Bolojan effect" that is pulling voters from USR and consolidating the centre-right.
PNL is enjoying the Bolojan dividend. They are benefiting from a rise in popularity due to the image of former premier, interim premier and leader Ilie Bolojan, who has emerged as a firm, tough political leader matching the profile desired by a certain segment of the electorate.
Trust in leaders
Trust ratings also shifted. George Simion (AUR) leads with 35%, up 3.7 points since April. Ilie Bolojan jumped 7.7 points to 29.5%, while President Nicușor Dan remained flat at 24.2%. Dominic Fritz, the mayor of Timișoara, rose 6.7 points to 20.1%. PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu stagnated at 14.1%, trailing several lesser-known figures.
- AUR Apr
- 35.8 %
- AUR Jul
- 36.4 %
- PNL Apr
- 14.2 %
- PNL Jul
- 22.4 %
- PSD Apr
- 17.2 %
- PSD Jul
- 17.9 %
- USR Apr
- 11.2 %
- USR Jul
- 10.5 %
Crisis and early elections
The political crisis, triggered by a censure motion backed by PSD and AUR, has acted like an electoral campaign, ARP notes. Interest in politics rose, pushing undecided voters toward the larger parties. PSD is seen as the main culprit for the crisis by 21.7% of respondents. A separate finding shows that 33.2% of Romanians favour early elections as a way out of the impasse, while over half do not support any of the current prime-ministerial proposals.
- George Simion
- 35 %
- Ilie Bolojan
- 29.5 %
- Nicușor Dan
- 24.2 %
- Dominic Fritz
- 20.1 %
- Sorin Grindeanu
- 14.1 %
Analyst view
Political analyst Alexandru Coita argues that AUR's lead is a logical consequence of being the only opposition party. "When all the classic parties crowd into government, it is normal for those left outside to grow in the polls. It is a matter of political physics," he said. He added that under the proportional system, AUR would likely win over 30% of the vote and would be hard to keep out of government. ARP also notes that the electoral bases of PSD and AUR are complementary, and a fusion of the two voter pools would create a huge bloc.
