Argentina draws a smooth path to the semis as Germany braces for a knockout gauntlet at the 2026 World Cup

The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America has concluded, and the expanded knockout bracket is taking shape. With 32 teams advancing to the new Round of 32, the tournament tree has split into two sharply contrasting halves. In one, title-holder Argentina enjoys a path that avoids any top-eight-ranked opponent until the semifinal. In the other, Germany – already under pressure after a shaky group phase – could run into a succession of former champions before even reaching the last four.

Argentina’s smooth road to the semifinal

Argentina’s draw has been widely described as a dream route. Lionel Messi, who has already scored six goals in the tournament, will first face Cape Verde, the small island nation ranked 64th in the world. Cape Verde qualified for the knockout stage with three draws, including a surprising 0–0 against European champion Spain, and their goalkeeper Vozinha has kept two clean sheets. The keeper’s personal story – his mother was able to travel to the tournament thanks to fan donations – has made him a crowd favourite.

It’s every footballer’s dream to play against Argentina and Lionel Messi.

But the gap in class remains stark. Should Argentina advance as expected, they would meet the winner of Australia versus Egypt in the Round of 16 and then face Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana in the quarterfinal. No opponent before the semifinal is ranked inside the top 20. Head coach Lionel Scaloni urged caution:

There are no easy games.

Germany’s nightmare bracket

For Germany, the knockout stage looks punishing. The DFB team, coached by Julian Nagelsmann, scraped through the group with a 7–1 win over Curaçao, a narrow 2–1 victory against Ivory Coast and a 1–2 defeat to Ecuador that sparked domestic criticism. The loss also cost defender Nico Schlotterbeck, who will miss the rest of the tournament through injury. Captain Joshua Kimmich had promised clarity after the group stage, but the team remains an enigma.

On a good day, this team could maybe beat anyone.

Germany first faces Paraguay in Boston on Monday evening. Should they win, a likely last-16 clash awaits against France – the side with arguably the deepest squad in the tournament, spearheaded by Kylian Mbappé (4 goals) and Ousmane Dembélé (4 goals). Winning that would tee up a quarterfinal against either the Netherlands or the 2022 semifinalists Morocco, followed by a potential semifinal against Spain. All four of those potential opponents are former world or European champions.

The broader picture

Elsewhere, France and Brazil remain among the favourites, though neither were flawless in the group stage. Brazil face Japan in the Round of 32, with Norway or Ivory Coast waiting next. England could meet Mexico in the last 16 and Brazil in the quarterfinal, but their form has been patchy. Host nation Canada open the knockout phase against South Africa, while Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal must overcome Luka Modrić’s Croatia – a matchup of two veterans that could become an early exit for one of football’s biggest stars.

Morocco, semifinalists four years ago, look even stronger now and will play the Netherlands in one of the most evenly matched Round of 32 ties. The winner of that duel could complicate Germany’s path further.

A new format and deeper jeopardy

The 2026 tournament is the first to feature 48 teams and a Round of 32 – a structural change that adds an extra knockout hurdle for every contender. It also creates longer waiting periods for group winners like Switzerland, who learned their opponent only hours before the draw. The introduction of a first knockout round before the traditional last 16 means that more favourites will face early scares, and the path to the final is longer and less forgiving than ever.