ANO leads Czech election poll with 31.5%, ODS and STAN tie for second at 15.5%

A new poll by Kantar CZ, conducted for Czech Television at the turn of May and June, puts the ruling ANO movement in first place with 31.5 percent of the vote. The opposition ODS and STAN share second, each collecting 15.5 percent. Pirates would receive 9.5 percent, SPD 6.5 percent, and the coalition Motorists exactly 5 percent, the threshold for entry into the Chamber of Deputies. KDU-ČSL, with 4 percent, would fall short of the 5 percent hurdle.

The main numbers

ANO and STAN each lost half a percentage point since Kantar's April survey. ODS remained unchanged, as did the Pirates at 9.5 percent and government ally SPD at 6.5 percent. The Motorists held at 5 percent, leaving their parliamentary presence uncertain. The new movement Naše Česko, founded by South Bohemian governor Martin Kuba, polled at 2.5 percent.

What changed since the election

Compared with the actual parliamentary election result, ANO lost three percentage points, SPD dropped 1.5 points, and Motorists fell two points, according to the survey authors. STAN, on the other hand, posted significant gains. The dissolution of the former SPOLU coalition appears to have dispersed centre-right voters more evenly, benefiting STAN.

Analyst view

Kantar CZ analyst Nikola Stárková told Czech Television that ODS and STAN have been trading tenths of a percentage point for months and now find themselves on a shared second place without much momentum.

The fact that political groupings are now sharing second place may be a consequence of the SPOLU coalition having essentially ceased to exist and the absence of a clear leader. Voters are spreading out more evenly, which benefits the Mayors most.

Motorists on the wire

With exactly 5 percent, the Motorists would scrape into the lower house. No margin for error remains; a single further decline would exclude them. Finance Minister Alena Schillerová (ANO) dismissed speculation about her party cooperating with Martin Kuba's Naše Česko, saying "nothing like that is being discussed or debated in our circles."

Turnout trajectory

Modelled turnout stood at 61.5 percent of citizens aged 18 and over. After a brief spike in February, the willingness to vote returned to around 62 percent, in line with the long-term average. The share of respondents answering "definitely yes" to voting declined markedly in March and has not recovered.

Presidential dispute in the same survey

The same Kantar CZ survey also examined public views on the ongoing dispute between the government and President Petr Pavel over the composition of the delegation to the July NATO summit in Ankara. Eight out of ten Czechs considered the spat a problem, with more than half believing the president's attendance should be a joint decision of the head of state and the cabinet. Voters of opposition parties perceived the conflict as more serious than government supporters did, though even half of government voters rated it as a significant issue.