NATO summit opens in Ankara as Trump's threats and alliance divisions take centre stage

Summit opens in Ankara

The 39th NATO summit begins on 7 July in Ankara, Turkey, the second time the country has hosted the event (the first was in 2004). Thirty-two member states are joined by guests from the Gulf region and Asia-Pacific, including the presidents of Ukraine and South Korea. Over 56,000 security personnel have been deployed, and the city has undergone road repairs and cosmetic upgrades along the route from the airport. The summit is scheduled to last less than 24 hours, with a shortened final communiqué.

Trump's conditional attendance

US President Donald Trump confirmed his participation only out of respect for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, having repeatedly expressed disappointment with most European allies.

I was disappointed. I was disappointed with Italy. I was disappointed with the United Kingdom... we were disappointed with Germany and France. We are disappointed above all with Spain, it's a horror.

He singled out Poland and President Karol Nawrocki as exceptions, noting he had supported Nawrocki's election. Trump had previously threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, calling the relationship "absurd" in a 2 July Truth Social post, and criticising Europeans for not backing his war with Iran.

European damage control

European allies have moved to minimise open conflict, limiting the summit's duration and the final statement. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump's Iran operation and his role in boosting European defence during a pre-summit White House visit. Expert Sophia Besch of the Carnegie Endowment said expectations are low.

Europeans expect very little from the Trump administration. They are not counting on rebuilding trust... The only thing I still hope for is greater predictability from the US.

Allies want clarity on the scale and speed of a potential US withdrawal to plan for gaps in intelligence, air defence, long-range precision strikes, and troop transport. The Pentagon had already halted the rotation of over 4,000 soldiers to Poland two months earlier.

Poland's agenda

Poland's delegation, led by President Nawrocki and including Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, aims to strengthen alliance unity and leverage its good relations with Washington. The government wants Poland to become a production and service hub for the Alliance.

Poland has ambitions here: to be a production hub, a service hub, but also a place for transferring production capabilities, arms production from the United States to Europe.

Poland will push for a permanent US base, expansion of NATO's fuel pipeline system to Central Europe (estimated cost 20 billion PLN), and further integration of its defence industry into allied supply chains. Polish firms already produce 52 components for Abrams tanks, and WZL-1 is set to service Abrams engines and Apache helicopters.

Ukraine's limited role

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend a dinner hosted by Erdoğan but will not participate in the second day or deliver a speech, reportedly due to concerns over Trump's reaction. The summit will also include working meetings with Ukraine and Gulf states under the Istanbul Initiative.

Infrastructure and defence industry

Warsaw is lobbying to extend the CEPS fuel pipeline network eastward, with a mandate from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Baltic states. In October 2025, NATO signed an agreement with Polish pipeline operator PERN to open the way for investments. Poland also participates in producing Patriot missile components and seeks to move more missile production to Europe.