Ifo survey: one in five German firms see AI as substitute for university degrees

The survey

The ifo Institute questioned nearly 3,000 German companies in May 2026 for its regular business-cycle survey. A new question for this round asked firms already using artificial intelligence how easy it would be to substitute formal qualifications or professional experience with AI‑assisted workers. The institute noted that this particular question was being asked for the first time, so no year-on-year comparison exists.

AI as a substitute for formal education

Among the 54.5 percent of companies that use AI in business processes, 19.2 percent described it as easy or very easy to replace an employee holding a Fach‑ or Hochschulabschluss (a technical or university degree) with a less qualified worker supported by AI tools. This corresponds to roughly one in five AI‑adopting firms seeing AI as a direct alternative to a degree.

KI verändert die Arbeitswelt und kann in manchen Bereichen auch formale Qualifikationen und Erfahrungen teilweise ersetzen.

Professional experience also under pressure

Fifteen percent of AI‑using companies said it would be easy or very easy to swap an experienced worker for a newcomer who relies on AI. Trade again showed the highest readiness, at 22.9 percent, followed by services (14.5 percent), manufacturing (12.6 percent) and construction (7.7 percent). ifo researcher Anna Ruffert explained that professional experience appears somewhat harder to compensate with AI than formal degrees.

Sectoral differences

The openness to replacing qualifications with AI varies sharply by industry. In the trade sector, 28.6 percent of AI‑using businesses see little difficulty in replacing degree holders, while the figure drops to 19.7 percent in services, 14.6 percent in manufacturing and just 9.3 percent in construction.

A skeptical majority

Despite these signals, most firms remain cautious. Fifty‑five point four percent of AI‑using companies consider it difficult or impossible to replace workers with Fach‑ or Hochschulabschluss by less qualified AI‑assisted staff. When it comes to replacing experienced workers, the resistance is even stronger, reaching 62.7 percent. The results were nearly identical across company sizes, the institute added.

AI adoption continues to climb

Overall, 54.5 percent of German companies now integrate AI into their business workflows, up from 40.9 percent a year earlier. A further 16 percent say they plan to introduce AI, and 21.6 percent are discussing the possibility. The share using AI for tasks such as text and image processing, data analysis or customer service has grown markedly.

Labour market impact

Consequences are already visible. Recent months have seen several large corporations announce job cuts explicitly linked to expanded AI use. Younger workers report a decline in entry‑level job offers, and the survey adds to evidence that formal credentials may gradually lose weight where AI can close the knowledge gap.