CDU loses ground in North Rhine-Westphalia poll, AfD ties SPD for second place ten months before 2027 election

Poll results

Ten months before the April 2027 state election, the CDU of Minister-President Hendrik Wüst has fallen to 32 percent in the Sunday question (down 3 points from February). The SPD, led by state chair Jochen Ott, also dropped 3 points to 17 percent, while the AfD rose 2 points to 17 percent, its best showing in the NRW-Trend series. The Greens, junior partner in the current government, gained 2 points to reach 15 percent. The FDP returned to the 5 percent threshold for the first time since April 2024 (up 1 point), and the Left remained at 6 percent. All other parties together account for 8 percent.

CDU32%

SPD17%

AfD17%

Grüne15%

FDP5%

Linke6%

CDU

32 %

SPD

17 %

AfD

17 %

Grüne

15 %

FDP

5 %

Linke

6 %

Data from the article text

Satisfaction with government and Wüst

Approval of the state government has fallen sharply. Only 42 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the government’s work, a drop of 6 points since the last poll. A clear majority of 53 percent expressed dissatisfaction (up 4 points). Wüst’s personal ratings also weakened: 42 percent are satisfied with his performance (down 3), while 40 percent are dissatisfied (up 2).

Government satisfied42%

Government dissatisfied53%

Wüst satisfied42%

Wüst dissatisfied40%

Government satisfied

42 %

Government dissatisfied

53 %

Wüst satisfied

42 %

Wüst dissatisfied

40 %

Data from the article text

Top issues shift to transport and infrastructure

For the first time, transport and infrastructure has overtaken migration as the most pressing political problem. 31 percent of respondents named it as one of the most urgent issues to solve. Education and schools followed with 24 percent, while migration slipped to third place at 20 percent. Social injustice rounded out the list of top concerns.

Transport & infrastructure31%

Education24%

Migration20%

Transport & infrastructure

31 %

Education

24 %

Migration

20 %

Data from the article text

What it means for the 2027 election

Despite the losses, a continuation of the black-green coalition remains mathematically possible. CDU and Greens together reach 47 percent, which, with the FDP and Left above the threshold, could yield a narrow majority in the Düsseldorf Landtag. However, the trend is negative for the governing parties and the SPD alike. The AfD’s surge to its best NRW-Trend number and the sharp drop in government satisfaction will provide debate material at the CDU state party conference next Saturday.