Poll gives AfD 40% lead ahead of Saxony-Anhalt regional election

Polling ahead of the September ballot

A poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for public broadcaster ZDF shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) holding 40% of voting intentions in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the regional election on 6 September 2026. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, trails in second place with 23%. The Left (Die Linke) holds 13%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) stands at 9%, and the Greens register 6%. Both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) register 3%, placing both parties below the 5% electoral threshold required to win seats in the regional parliament. Around 1.8 million voters across the eastern state, which has a total population of roughly 2.1 million inhabitants, are eligible to vote on 6 September.

Economic disparities and demographic decline

The regional campaign centers on economic pressures and demographic changes in the state, located roughly 150 kilometers west of Berlin. Saxony-Anhalt lost more than 15,000 residents in 2025, continuing a multi-decade trend of population decline that has affected rural districts in particular. The outflow of working-age inhabitants and an aging population have placed strain on public infrastructure, complicating the maintenance of local schools, childcare facilities, medical services, and public transport networks. In July 2026, the state recorded an unemployment rate of 8.1%, even as employers reported shortages of personnel in manufacturing, construction, healthcare, logistics, and hospitality. Earnings in the state continue to lag behind federal levels. In 2025, the median gross monthly wage for a full-time employee in Saxony-Anhalt stood at 3,563 euros, compared with a federal average of 4,217 euros.

Seat projections and coalition arithmetic

Saxony-Anhalt is currently governed by a three-party coalition composed of the CDU, the center-left SPD, and the liberal FDP, led by Prime Minister Sven Schulze. The CDU has headed the state government in Magdeburg continuously since German reunification in 1990. Polling projections indicate that the AfD could win approximately 39 seats in the 83-seat regional parliament, leaving the party three seats short of the 42 required for a standalone absolute majority. A 40% vote share would nearly double the 20.8% result the AfD recorded in the 2021 regional election. If smaller parties such as the FDP and BSW fail to clear the 5% threshold, forming an alternative governing majority without the AfD would require broad alliances across remaining parliamentary groups.

Campaign strategy and candidate profile

The AfD campaign is headed by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, a former perfume salesman who leads the party group in the state parliament. Siegmund focuses his platform on strict migration policy, state-enforced remigration measures, and renewed diplomatic and trade ties between Germany and Russia. In November 2023, Siegmund attended a private meeting in Potsdam where participants discussed proposals to expel foreign nationals and residents of immigrant background from Germany. Siegmund has combined local town visits across eastern Germany with an extensive social media strategy, securing more than 707,000 followers on TikTok in a state of 2.12 million residents.