Spain counts 639 heat-related deaths in a week as temperatures hit 44°C and Mediterranean warms to Caribbean levels
Temperatures soared to 44°C in Córdoba as a Saharan air mass swept across Europe, leaving 639 dead in a week and driving the Mediterranean Sea to temperatures normally found only in the Caribbean.
The toll of the heat
Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) activated red-level warnings for extreme danger in Andalusia, Cantabria and the Basque Country on Tuesday, with a further ten autonomous communities under orange alert. Forecasts put the mercury at 44°C in Córdoba and 42°C in Jaén, Liébana and parts of the Basque Country. Nighttime offered little respite, with minimums staying above 25°C along the Mediterranean coast and in the south.
The heatwave, which began last week, has claimed 639 lives in the space of seven days, according to figures published by La Vanguardia. The warm air mass, of Saharan origin, also carried suspended dust into southern Spain.
The intense heat returns to the news with maximums above 40 degrees.
A sea running a fever
While the land baked, the Mediterranean Sea set its own alarm bells ringing. Data from Copernicus showed the sea surface temperature nearing 30°C in several spots by 23 June, an anomaly of 2–3°C above the recent climatology. The reading placed the Mediterranean on a par with the Caribbean at the same time of year, but with a steeper deviation from normal.
- Copernicus records Mediterranean Sea at 30°C with 2-3°C anomaly.
- Thunderstorms and hail sweep across central and eastern Spain.
- Thunderstorms dump over 70 l/m² in parts of Catalonia; AEMET issues yellow warnings for eight regions.
- Red-level heat warnings in Andalusia, Cantabria and the Basque Country; Córdoba forecast to hit 44°C; 639 deaths confirmed in the previous week.
- Temperatures dip briefly in the northeast and Ebro valley; heat begins rebuilding in central and southern Spain.
- Self-taught predictor Jorge Rey forecasts a severe heat spell, with highs of 39-44°C in the south and centre.
Scientists warn that a sea so warm stores enough energy to fuel prolonged tropical nights and intense rain events later in the summer. A sea with extra energy is capable of releasing heat slowly over weeks, amplifying the sensation of mugginess and altering the environment in which thunderstorms develop.
Storms punctuate the oven
A brief change brought thunderstorms to Catalonia on Sunday and Monday, with Santa Coloma de Farners recording more than 70 litres per square metre. The unstable weather was driven by a small pocket of cold air at altitude, which sparked localised downpours. Samuel Biener, a meteorologist at Meteored, warned that some cells could dump more than 20 l/m² in an hour, raising the risk of flash floods in mountainous areas such as the Sierras del Segura and Alcaraz.
A small pocket of cold air in altitude situated over the southeast will favour the generation of storm cells from midday onwards.
The most notable feature on Monday will be the formation of storms in the afternoon over wide areas of the north and east of the peninsula.
What comes next
The anticyclone that dominated the country is expected to weaken midweek, allowing temperatures to dip briefly in the northeast and the Ebro valley, where a drop of up to five degrees is forecast for Wednesday. But the reprieve will be short-lived: a fresh pulse of warm air is likely to push highs past 40°C again in western Andalusia, southern Extremadura and parts of the Ebro valley by the weekend.
Beyond the official forecasts, self-taught weather observer Jorge Rey, using the traditional Cabañuelas method, has set his sights on an even hotter spell between 11 and 20 July, when he expects maxima of 39–44°C across the south and centre and an unusual rise in the north to 31°C. AEMET itself warned that towards the end of the week the heat will once again be very intense, with little relief at night for coastal and southern localities.
