Climate warming to breach 1.5°C Paris accord threshold by 2030, study finds

Record emissions and accelerating warming

Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2024, the highest level ever recorded. Three-quarters of those emissions are directly linked to the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal). The rate of human-induced warming is now 0.27°C per decade, also a historic high, partly because of reduced aerosol pollution that had previously masked some of the heating.

“The rate of this human-induced warming is currently 0.27 degrees per decade. That is an unprecedented pace. If we extrapolate the current trend, we reach about 1.5°C around 2030.”

The vanishing carbon budget

According to the study, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C stands at just 130 billion tonnes of CO2. At current emission rates, that is equivalent to roughly three years of emissions. The scientists, publishing in Earth System Science Data, stressed that the budget is shrinking fast as emissions stay at record levels.

“The remaining carbon budget is around 130 billion tonnes of CO2. That's the amount of emissions we can emit in the future to stay compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. It's the equivalent of three years of CO2 emissions at the current rate.”

Paris Agreement goal in doubt

The 2015 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goal of holding global warming to well below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The new indicators show that total average warming in 2025 was already 1.47°C, of which 1.37°C is attributable to human activity. With warming continuing at a rapid pace, the 1.5°C threshold is now expected to be crossed before 2030, far ahead of earlier projections.

Calls for action

The consortium of 73 researchers urged governments to intensify efforts to phase out fossil fuels during this critical decade. They noted that without a rapid decline in emissions, the world will soon lock in levels of warming that carry severe risks for ecosystems, coastal communities and food systems. The update serves as a stark input for the next IPCC assessment cycle.