Orlen Lowers Wholesale Fuel Prices Following US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement

Poland's state energy company Orlen cut wholesale fuel prices on April 9, 2026, reducing Ekodiesel by 147 PLN to 6,803 PLN per cubic meter and Eurosuper 95 gasoline by 90 PLN to 5,415 PLN per cubic meter, as global oil markets reacted to a two-week ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran. The Polish government simultaneously published maximum retail prices for Thursday, with a liter of 95 gasoline capped at 6.27 PLN, 98 gasoline at 6.88 PLN, and diesel at 7.83 PLN — all figures including VAT. Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed the government would maintain its price-control framework despite the easing of Middle East tensions, saying the administration would "play it safe." The wholesale cuts represent a significant single-day movement, though analysts cautioned that the path from global oil markets to Polish pump prices involves several intermediate steps and will take time to fully materialize.

Government's price cap mechanism holds firm for now The daily price-setting mechanism, introduced under the "Fuel Prices Lower" package on March 31, 2026, requires the Ministry of Energy to publish maximum prices each day, with the new rates taking effect the following day. Minister of Energy Miłosz Motyka published the April 9 caps, which showed gasoline prices rising slightly compared to Wednesday — 95 gasoline increased by six groszy and 98 gasoline by six groszy — while diesel fell by four groszy. Stations that sell fuel above the designated ceiling face fines of up to 1 million PLN, with compliance monitored by the National Revenue Administration. The maximum price is calculated using the average wholesale price of fuels in the country, to which excise duty, a fuel fee, a sales margin of 0.30 PLN per liter, and VAT are added. Minister of Finance and Economy Andrzej Domański noted that the reduced excise duty is in effect only until mid-April, while the lower VAT rate applies through the end of the month, leaving open the question of whether those temporary tax cuts will be extended.

Polish maximum retail fuel prices — April 9 vs. first day of caps (March 31): 95 gasoline (PLN/liter) (before: 6.16, after: 6.27); 98 gasoline (PLN/liter) (before: 6.76, after: 6.88); Diesel (PLN/liter) (before: 7.60, after: 7.83)

„The drops we see on the markets will translate into prices at gas stations, but it will take a few days” — Andrzej Domański via Polsat News

Ceasefire optimism fades as Hormuz blockade persists The initial market euphoria following the ceasefire announcement faded quickly on Wednesday as it became clear that the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with oil prices rebounding from a low of around 91 dollars per barrel back above 97 dollars — still more than 30 percent above pre-war levels. An Iranian attack on a pipeline leading to the west coast of Saudi Arabia was reported on Wednesday, though it caused no serious damage, and news of Israeli strikes on Lebanon added to market uncertainty. Iran indicated that even after reopening the strait, shipping would proceed in coordination with the Iranian military, a condition that analysts said could keep traffic well below pre-war volumes even after a formal reopening. According to the MarineTraffic service, only two ships passed through Hormuz on Wednesday, and an Iranian official told Reuters that a partial reopening could occur Thursday or Friday, but only on Tehran's terms. Urszula Cieślak, a senior analyst at the Reflex office, told the Polish state news agency PAP that if Brent crude stabilizes at 94 to 95 dollars per barrel, successive daily reductions in maximum prices of around 10 to 20 groszy per liter could be expected.

„If the price of Brent oil remains at the level of 94-95 dollars per barrel, with an appropriate drop in the prices of finished fuels, we will record successive reductions in maximum prices” — Urszula Cieślak via PAP

90% (traffic reduction) — Strait of Hormuz shipping volume drop since Iran blockade

German drivers face higher prices despite global oil drop In Germany, fuel prices moved in the opposite direction on Wednesday afternoon, with most stations raising prices at noon — the only permitted time for increases under regulations introduced since April 1. The German motoring association ADAC reported that a liter of E10 gasoline reached 2.208 euros on Wednesday afternoon, up approximately 5.7 cents from the morning, while diesel rose about 5.3 cents to 2.471 euros. Compared to the period before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, E10 gasoline in Germany has risen by approximately 40 to 41 cents per liter, and diesel by more than 70 cents. The German government warned against expecting a rapid price drop following the ceasefire, with deputy government spokesman Sebastian Hille stating that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz "takes time and does not mean a quick return to the situation from February." The Federal Cartel Office had previously noted that cost increases pass through to pump prices quickly, while decreases do so far more slowly — a dynamic that ADAC urged authorities to address by ensuring the oil price drop is "quickly passed on to consumers."

The conflict affecting global fuel markets began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in what was designated Operation Epic Fury. Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's crude oil and 25 percent of global liquefied natural gas had previously flowed. Poland's government introduced the "Fuel Prices Lower" package on March 31, 2026, setting daily legally binding maximum retail prices as a direct response to the surge in fuel costs driven by the conflict. The ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday, April 7 to 8, 2026.