US-Iran Ceasefire Slashes Oil Prices but German Fuel Costs Remain High at the Pump

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced by President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening via his Truth Social platform, sent crude oil prices sharply lower on Wednesday but failed to deliver immediate relief at German fuel pumps, where gas stations raised prices at noon under a recently introduced pricing rule. North Sea Brent crude fell by roughly 13 percent to approximately 95 US dollars per barrel, after having climbed from around 72 US dollars on February 27 to more than 120 US dollars at the height of the conflict. Iran declared its readiness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had effectively blockaded since the start of the war. Despite the market euphoria, the German federal government moved quickly to dampen consumer expectations, warning that the path from a ceasefire announcement to lower prices at the pump remains long and uncertain.

2026-02-27: 72, 2026-04-07: 105, 2026-04-08: 95

German government warns: Hormuz reopening will take weeks Deputy government spokesperson Sebastian Hille delivered a cautious assessment at a Berlin briefing on Wednesday, stressing that the ceasefire process carries substantial risks. „We are still far from an agreement, and significant setbacks are possible at any time.” — Sebastian Hille via Der Tagesspiegel Hille noted that even if ships could begin transiting the Strait of Hormuz immediately, it would take three to six weeks logistically before those additional oil supplies physically reach Europe. Destroyed production facilities along the route would require further time to restore, and transport costs were expected to remain elevated in the interim. Hille also flagged that Iran has indicated it may charge passage fees for vessels using the strait, adding another layer of uncertainty to the timeline. Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a German commitment to help restore maritime traffic alongside approximately 15 other nations led by France, though he did not specify a timeframe or the nature of Germany's involvement. The federal government also ruled out further consumer relief measures such as tax cuts or a price cap for the time being.

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026, with strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran's Revolutionary Guard subsequently blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies are transported. The blockade drove Brent crude from around 72 US dollars per barrel at the war's outset to above 120 US dollars at its peak, according to reporting in source articles. A new German fuel pricing rule — the "12 o'clock rule" — was introduced approximately one week before Wednesday's events, limiting gas stations to a single price increase per day while allowing reductions at any time.

Pump prices rise at noon despite oil market plunge The disconnect between falling crude prices and rising pump prices in Germany stems from the country's recently introduced 12 o'clock rule, which allows stations to make their single daily price increase at midday. According to data from the ADAC, the nationwide average price for Super E10 gasoline rose by 5.7 cents per liter between 11:45 a.m. and 12:15 p.m. on Wednesday, bringing the average to 2.208 euros per liter, while diesel rose by 5.3 cents to 2.471 euros per liter. The ADAC noted, however, that Wednesday's midday increase was the smallest since the rule was introduced, compared with jumps of more than 10 cents seen in the previous week. Average prices at 12:15 p.m. were also lower than at the same time on Tuesday, by nearly 3 cents for E10 and by more than 3 cents for diesel. The Federal Cartel Office confirmed it has opened investigations into initial violations of the new rule, which a spokesperson told Bild were primarily related to timing violations caused by technical adjustment difficulties. The ADAC demanded that the fallen oil price be passed on to consumers swiftly.

5.7 (euro cents) — Wednesday noon E10 price increase per liter

German pump prices: Wednesday noon vs. previous week peak: E10 midday price increase (before: Over 10 cents (previous week), after: 5.7 cents (April 8, 2026)); Diesel midday price increase (before: Over 10 cents (previous week), after: 5.3 cents (April 8, 2026)); Diesel average price (before: Above 2.50 euros per liter (Tuesday peak), after: 2.471 euros per liter (Wednesday noon))

DAX surges over 5 percent on ceasefire relief European stock markets reacted with sharp gains to the ceasefire announcement, with Germany's leading DAX index rising by more than 5 percent to 24,110 points — its largest single-day gain since March 2022, according to Tagesschau. The index traded above the 24,000-point mark for the first time in a month. The Euro Stoxx 50 also climbed by nearly 5 percent to 5,911 points. DZ Bank analyst Sören Hettler attributed the rally to relief over the pause in fighting, but cautioned that the underlying geopolitical positions of Washington and Tehran remain far apart. „Donald Trump speaks of a total victory — but Iran wants to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz even after the end of the war.” — Sören Hettler via tagesschau.de Chief Economist Thomas Gitzel of VP Bank said the drop in oil prices raised hopes that the recent rise in inflation rates would prove short-lived, potentially allowing central banks to avoid interest rate hikes. Market participants also revised upward their expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end, with the probability estimated at above 40 percent according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Analysts from LBBW warned, however, that in normal times around 135 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and that resumption of traffic would be gradual even under rapid implementation, leaving supply chain disruptions as a persistent risk. Chief Strategist Elliot Hentov of State Street Investment Management said that a temporary revival of shipping was not equivalent to a predictable normalization of energy flows in the coming months. Two ships had already transited the strait since the ceasefire began, according to N-tv, but more than 800 vessels remained stuck as of Wednesday morning.

135 (ships per day) — normal daily traffic through Strait of Hormuz

DAX index gain: +5, Brent crude price change: -13