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Europe·since 26 May·389 entries

European democracies and populism

Populist and anti-liberal political forces are gaining institutional ground within the European Union, testing and at times reshaping the boundaries of liberal democracy through electoral victories, legal challenges, and conflicts with EU frameworks.

AI text ·

WeekStateNextWhoNumbersPromisesChronicle

This week18 entries

State of playtoday 15:39

France Under Pressure

French authorities banned demonstrations in Paris, Lyon, Lille and Grenoble and extended night curfews ahead of protests planned for 24 October. Critics cite freedom of assembly, though administrative courts remain a possible check on the executive.

Marine Le Pen holds the 2027 polling lead, with Mélenchon second. The National Rally meets in Orléans on 24 October with about 3,000 security personnel deployed and thousands of counter-protesters expected.

Far Right in Parliament

The Patriots for Europe became the third-largest group on 21 October with 85 MEPs, the same day European prosecutors searched the group's staff offices. The EPP joined far-right groups on 22 October to back a three-year methane rule delay, and on 23 October POLITICO reported the EPPO is also examining EPP consultant contracts.

Hungary, Germany and Beyond

Hungary's Péter Magyar is seeking a reset with the EU as von der Leyen and Costa visit Budapest, with more than €4 billion of frozen funds released. The AfD seeks Germany's first far-right state premier in Saxony-Anhalt in December. Serbia votes on 25 October, testing Vučić's 14-year rule against a student-led movement.

What comes next

  • 24/10tomorrowYellow Vest protest in France, with a large police deployment
  • 25/10in 2 daysSerbia holds early parliamentary election
  • 28/10in 5 daysEU presents its enlargement policy review
  • 29/10in 6 daysFirst session of the new Berlin parliament

Open questions

  • Can AfD and BSW reach a deal to elect Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt, or will government formation stay deadlocked?
  • Will Le Pen's proposed constitutional referendum on "Islamist ideology" become a central issue in the 2027 French campaign?

Who is who8

Marine Le Pen National Rally leader

Blames the far left for the 17 October unrest, backs the police and presents herself as the law-and-order alternative while leading 2027 polling.

22 Oct

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) German far-right party

Needs outside votes to elect Ulrich Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt and is playing down the publication of more than 421,000 of its emails after a cyberattack.

22 Oct

Péter Magyar Hungarian Prime Minister

His reforms are acknowledged by EU ministers, who keep Article 7 open and ask for further changes.

19 Oct

Jarosław Kaczyński Law and Justice leader

Told a 17 October rally at the Constitutional Tribunal that the National Bank of Poland may soon need to be defended.

17 Oct

Andrej Babiš Czech Prime Minister, ANO leader

His ANO won no seat in the second Senate round, and his coalition will not reach a Senate majority.

20 Oct

Emmanuel Macron French President

Refused Interior Minister Nunez's resignation offer on 19 October; curfews and fast-track courts are now in place.

22 Oct

Karol Nawrocki Polish President

A presidential aide says he will likely veto the two abortion-loosening bills passed on 20 October.

21 Oct

Patriots for Europe European Parliament far-right group

Third-largest group at 85 MEPs, now facing an EPPO search of staff offices over its predecessor's funds, and denies legal continuity.

22 Oct

Numbers

AUR poll share in Romania (%)

40→40 %

10/10 → 22/10

Promises2

Marine Le Penopen

She would hold a constitutional referendum on a public veil ban and national preference.

10 Oct · if elected in 2027 · lemonde.fr

Marine Le Penopen

A Le Pen government would cut France's EU contribution by more than €11 billion from 2027.

8 Oct · from 2027 · lemonde.fr

Chronicle389 entries since 26 May

19–25 October15 entries

23/10

The European Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating alleged misuse of EU funds in contracts involving two Greek consultants to the centre-right EPP, POLITICO reported on 23 October. The probe targets the largest mainstream group, after searches at the Patriots for Europe on 21 October.

politico.eu

22/10

Constitutional Tribunal president Bogdan Święczkowski referred judge Magdalena Bentkowska to the disciplinary spokesperson on 22 October after she led Krystian Markiewicz into the judges' section. The dispute over oaths before the president continues.

pollar.news · full article

22/10

Romanian prosecutors sent AUR vice-president and lawmaker Dan Tănase to trial on 22 October over alleged incitement to hatred and discrimination against foreign workers, citing his August 2025 social-media remarks. AUR polls at about 40%, making it Romania's most popular party.

rmb.reuters.com

22/10

The European Parliament adopted a position on 22 October delaying the EU's methane regulations by three years. The European People's Party joined far-right groups to secure the majority, aligning Parliament with industry concerns about supply disruption.

politico.eu

21/10

Czech communist MEP Kateřina Konečná joined the Patriots for Europe on 21 October, lifting the group to 85 MEPs and past the European Conservatives and Reformists as the European Parliament's third-largest group.

dw.com

21/10

Officials acting for the European Public Prosecutor's Office searched staff offices of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament on 21 October, Reuters reported. The probe concerns alleged EU-funds mismanagement by predecessor Identity and Democracy, where Parliament found €4.3 million in irregular items.

reuters.com · politico.eu

21/10

More than 421,000 emails linked to Germany's AfD were published online after a cyberattack, according to reporting on 21 October. The party is playing down the leak, and its political impact is unclear.

amp.dw.com · politico.eu

20/10

A Lyon court convicted 18 people after Monday hearings, and Paris heard about 70 cases on 20 October, in the first fast-track sentencing after the riots. Police are preparing a massive deployment for a Yellow Vest protest called for 24 October.

pollar.news

20/10

Poland's parliament approved two bills on 20 October that would loosen strict abortion rules, including decriminalisation measures, Bloomberg reported. A presidential aide said a veto by President Karol Nawrocki is likely.

bloomberg.com

20/10

French authorities announced localized night curfews in central Paris, Lyon and other cities on 20 October after protests over living costs turned violent. AP reported at least 2,400 arrests, and Prime Minister Lecornu said a large security operation is planned for Saturday.

apnews.com

20/10

MEPs approved an emergency debate on recent violence in France, Italy and Belgium on 20 October, RTÉ reported, after competing far-right and far-left motions were rejected. The adopted motion was backed by the EPP and the ECR.

rte.ie

20/10

People's Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo confirmed on 20 October that his party is discussing coordination with Vox on Senate lists for the 29 November election, aiming to secure a majority and counter a Socialist-led left-wing agreement.

politico.eu

20/10

Romania's parliament approved Luca Niculescu as prime minister on 20 October after three failed attempts to form a government. The PNL-Social Democrat arrangement lasts six months, by which time a longer-term coalition deal is required, and was partly meant to avert snap elections.

politico.eu

19/10

Romania's National Liberals and Social Democrats agreed on 19 October to support independent prime minister-designate Luca Niculescu, POLITICO reported. The government is meant to last six months, with the PNL outside the cabinet, and aims to prevent an early election that could benefit AUR.

politico.eu

19/10

Macron refused the resignation offered by Interior Minister Laurent Nunez on 19 October, Reuters reported, asking him to stay to preserve police command and develop new measures against looting after protests over living costs turned violent.

reuters.com

12–18 October13 entries

17/10

Nationwide demonstrations in France on 17 October over inflation and education standards involved clashes, fires and looting, with more than 160 arrests. Marine Le Pen, who leads presidential polling, blamed the far left and backed the police.

afp.com · economist.com

17/10

ANO won no seat in the second round of Czech partial Senate elections, losing the only mandate it had been defending. First-round results indicate the government coalition will not reach a Senate majority, leaving opposition parties in control of the chamber.

pollar.news · full article

17/10

Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński told a demonstration in front of the Constitutional Tribunal on 17 October that the National Bank of Poland may soon need to be defended. It follows a Sejm committee's recommendation of State Tribunal proceedings against governor Glapiński.

pollar.news · full article

16/10

EU leaders ended their 16 October summit without agreeing a timetable for the 2028–34 budget, with Council President António Costa pressing for a rapid deal while governments stayed divided. Marine Le Pen argued a pre-election agreement would be a democratic scandal.

politico.eu

15/10

The AfD and BSW jointly backed a motion in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament on 15 October demanding an immediate end to German military support for Ukraine. It followed an early-October meeting of the parties, though the state classifies the AfD as confirmed right-wing extremist.

dw.com

15/10

The European party grouping that includes Germany's AfD, Europe of Sovereign Nations, filed a 160-page submission on 15 October denying breaches of EU values. It offered new rules to hold national member parties to account, Politico reported, as it seeks to resist action by the EU party watchdog.

politico.eu

14/10

EU ministers on 14 October acknowledged rule-of-law reforms under Prime Minister Péter Magyar but concluded further changes were needed, leaving the Article 7 proceedings, opened by the European Parliament in 2018, unresolved.

eutoday.net

14/10

Maciej Berek's oath as a Constitutional Tribunal judge began in the Sejm on 14 October, with Marshal Włodzimierz Czarzasty presiding. The ceremony takes place in parliament, as the Venice Commission has just issued an opinion on the president's powers over such oaths.

13/10

The Greens and SPD suspended exploratory coalition negotiations with Berlin's Left Party on 13 October while they assess whether antisemitism measures agreed the previous week remain in force, Reuters reported. The dispute also touches the Israel–Gaza conflict.

reuters.com

13/10

A Romanian court transferred pro-Russian former presidential candidate Călin Georgescu from police custody to 30 days of house arrest on 13 October, Reuters reported, while authorities investigate suspected fraud.

rmb.reuters.com

13/10

Hungary's parliament approved on 13 October, by 139 votes to 51, an amendment removing anti-LGBTQ provisions from the 2021 child protection law. It is the first rollback of Orbán-era restrictions since Prime Minister Péter Magyar took office in May.

afp.com

12/10

Labour Minister and SPD co-leader Bärbel Bas resigned on 12 October after open attacks from coalition partners, Reuters reported. Chancellor Merz said the change would not alter the coalition agreement, as the government faces pressure from AfD gains in eastern state elections.

reuters.com · dw.com

12/10

The Sejm commission investigating Pegasus sent prosecutors notifications of possible offences concerning 11 people, including former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. It says the spyware ran without the required security accreditation and that data left Polish territory.

pollar.news · full article

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Photo: Son Tung Tran (Pexels)
Photo: Son Tung Tran (Pexels)

What comes next

  • 24/10Yellow Vest protest in France, with a large police deploymenttomorrow
  • 25/10Serbia holds early parliamentary electionin 2 days
  • 28/10EU presents its enlargement policy reviewin 5 days
  • 29/10First session of the new Berlin parliamentin 6 days

Open questions

  • Can AfD and BSW reach a deal to elect Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt, or will government formation stay deadlocked?
  • Will Le Pen's proposed constitutional referendum on "Islamist ideology" become a central issue in the 2027 French campaign?

Numbers

AUR poll share in Romania (%)

40→40 %

10/10 → 22/10

Who is who 8

Marine Le Pen National Rally leader

22 Oct

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) German far-right party

22 Oct

Péter Magyar Hungarian Prime Minister

19 Oct

Jarosław Kaczyński Law and Justice leader

17 Oct

Andrej Babiš Czech Prime Minister, ANO leader

20 Oct

Emmanuel Macron French President

22 Oct

Karol Nawrocki Polish President

21 Oct

Patriots for Europe European Parliament far-right group

22 Oct

Promises 2

Marine Le Penopen

She would hold a constitutional referendum on a public veil ban and national preference.

10 Oct · if elected in 2027

Marine Le Penopen

A Le Pen government would cut France's EU contribution by more than €11 billion from 2027.

8 Oct · from 2027

how it is made