The downing of their own allies over the Persian Gulf and the judicial liquidation of environmentalists in North Dakota are not isolated incidents. They are proof that global safety fuses have just blown.
Allied Fire and Judicial Verdicts. The sight of three F-15E Strike Eagle fighter wrecks smoking on the sands of Kuwait serves as a brutal metaphor for the current state of American power. On Monday, March 2, 2026, the air defense systems of a key US ally in the region achieved the impossible: they identified their own defenders as enemies. This incident, referred to in military newspeak as friendly fire, exposes the fragility of the technocratic myth of total control over the battlefield. The Pentagon confirms that the pilots survived, and footage of an American pilot being rescued by a Kuwaiti civilian has circled the globe, but sentimental images cannot hide the fact that a critical short circuit has occurred in the „friend-or-foe” system.
Simultaneously, thousands of miles to the west in North Dakota, another system – this time legal – performed an equally precise shoot-down. Federal Judge Daniel Traynor upheld a ruling ordering Greenpeace to pay $345 million to the Energy Transfer corporation. This decision, a fallout from protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline, effectively means the financial execution of one of the world's largest environmental organizations. The mechanism is identical: a powerful structure (whether military or corporate-judicial) eliminates a target it deems a threat, regardless of the long-term consequences for the ecosystem – political or natural.
These two events share a common denominator: the radicalization of methods. In both cases, we are dealing with a transition from negotiations and warning procedures to final solutions. Donald Trump, by announcing Operation „Epic Fury,” set a rigid timeframe for the conflict with Iran, which, combined with Energy Transfer's aggressive stance toward activists, paints a picture of a world where dialogue has been replaced by destructive executive force. There is no longer room for gray areas; there is only a target to be neutralized, whether it is an Iranian frigate or the bank account of an NGO.Four Weeks of Illusion. The US President declares that the operation in Iran will last four weeks. This is a political promise that, when faced with the realities of the Persian Gulf, sounds like a gamble. American forces have already struck over a thousand targets, and nine Iranian ships lie at the bottom. However, Tehran, unlike Washington's previous adversaries, possesses a decentralized network of influence and the capacity for an asymmetric response. The destruction of infrastructure in Isfahan by the Israeli air force, aimed at missile production, may paralyze industry, but it will not extinguish the ideological hatred mentioned by Swiss and American media.
Washington's relations with Tehran have remained in a state of permanent crisis since 1979, when the fall of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ended an era of close alliance. Earlier, in 1953, Operation Ajax carried out by the CIA overthrew Prime Minister Mosaddegh, which remains the foundation of Iranian distrust toward the West to this day.
The „maximum pressure” strategy assumes that the opponent will surrender under the weight of technology and firepower. However, the mistake in Kuwait proves that the more advanced equipment there is in the region, the greater the risk of a catastrophic error. Polish diplomacy rightly launched a hotline for citizens, sensing that the conflict could spill over Iran's borders. Furthermore, the withdrawal of the Russian concern Rosatom from the Bushehr power plant is a signal that even Moscow – Tehran's longtime ally – does not believe in the stability of the situation. Vladimir Putin calculates coldly: chaos drives up oil prices, but direct involvement in a losing cause is not in his interest.
„It is decades of hatred that brought us to this point, but now is the time for a final reckoning.” — Donald Trump
We are observing a dangerous feedback loop. Israel is seizing the moment of the American offensive to settle its own security issues, striking at the heart of the Iranian missile program. Meanwhile, in the USA, the verdict against Greenpeace shows that the front line of the battle for resources (oil, gas) runs not only through the Strait of Hormuz, but also through courtrooms. Energy corporations, such as Energy Transfer, have gained a powerful tool in the form of SLAPP lawsuits, which act like a precision strike on the opponent's logistics. Liquidating the funding of activists is the civilian equivalent of sinking a naval fleet – it eliminates the capacity to resist.The Price of Surgical Precision. Proponents of a hardline course, such as politicians from the German AfD or advisors close to Donald Trump, argue that only decisive force can restore order. They point to the effective elimination of the Revolutionary Guard leadership and the paralysis of Iranian naval capabilities as proof of the correctness of the chosen path. According to this narrative, a swift war and ruthless enforcement of the law against „eco-saboteurs” clear the field for stable economic development and energy security. They claim that protracted negotiations with Iran or tolerating pipeline blockades are signs of weakness that only embolden the West's enemies.
This logic, however, has a critical flaw: it assumes that chaos can be controlled. The downing of three of their own fighters by an ally in Kuwait is the most striking counterargument to the thesis of the „surgical precision” of modern conflicts. If a superpower loses three machines due to a „friend-or-foe” system error under conditions of relative calm over friendly territory, what will happen in the heat of battle when Iran activates its asymmetric assets? Similarly, in the case of Greenpeace: eliminating the legal path of protest will not make the opposition disappear. It will only drive it underground, making it more unpredictable and radical, just as destroying Iran's conventional army will strengthen the position of terrorist militias.
3 — number of F-15E fighters lost by the US due to an ally's error
For Poland, this situation carries specific threats. The Minister of National Defense warns that Washington's attention diverted to the Middle East weakens NATO's eastern flank. Every F-15 lost over the desert and every dollar spent on the operation in the Gulf are resources that may be missing in Central Europe. US great-power policy, stretched between the pacification of Tehran and the fight against internal activism, is becoming increasingly costly and risky for its satellites.
Scale of Destruction: Iran vs Greenpeace: Method of elimination: Economic sanctions → Direct military strikes; Legal status of the opponent: Legal NGO organization → Entity in bankruptcy
The outlook for the coming weeks is bleak. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and higher courts uphold the verdict against Greenpeace, we will face a double shock: energy and democratic. The Kuwaiti civilian thanking the American pilot for „safety” at the moment her own technology failed and her plane burned a few hundred meters away is an image that should haunt strategists in Washington. It is a symbol of a system that promises protection but increasingly delivers only ruins – whether in the form of bombed cities or bankrupt civic organizations.
„Are you okay? Here you are safe, thank you for your help.” — Kuwaiti resident on recording
The irony of fate is that the greatest threat to American pilots turned out to be their allies, and the greatest threat to American democracy – its own courts. In the world of „Epic Fury,” no one is safe, not even those pulling the trigger.