Most German voters expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to leave office before 2029 election, poll finds

Expectations of premature departure

A representative survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Deutsche Presse-Agentur shows that a majority of eligible voters in Germany do not expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to complete his full term in office. The poll questioned 2,091 registered voters between 14 August and 17 August 2026 regarding their outlook on the current legislative period. According to the findings, 54% of respondents anticipate that the CDU leader will be replaced before the scheduled 2029 federal election.

A specific breakdown shows that 36% of participants expect Merz to remain in office through the remainder of 2026 but leave before the 2029 election. Another 18% of respondents predict that his removal will occur within the current year. Only 29% of voters believe Merz will serve at least until the planned 2029 election date, while 17% of respondents provided no answer.

Authority loss after pre-summer reshuffle

The survey also assessed public reactions to the personnel changes executed prior to the summer recess across the federal cabinet, the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group, and the CDU federal party leadership. The findings indicate that the reshuffle failed to enhance the chancellor's political position among the electorate.

A total of 36% of respondents concluded that Merz experienced a severe loss of authority inside his party due to the restructuring, while an additional 31% noted a somewhat negative effect on his standing. Only 1% of respondents observed a substantial gain in authority, with another 5% noting a somewhat positive impact. A neutral assessment was given by 19% of participants, who stated that neither a gain nor a loss of authority occurred.

Do you believe that Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz has gained or lost authority in his party through the personnel changes in the federal government, the Bundestag parliamentary group, and in the CDU?

Suitability ratings and comparison with Wüst

The survey evaluated personal suitability for the chancellorship by comparing Merz with North Rhine-Westphalia Minister President Hendrik Wüst, who is also a CDU member. When asked which figure was personally more suitable to lead the federal government, 25% of respondents selected Wüst, whereas only 9% selected Merz.

A majority of 66% responded that they did not know or could not decide between the two politicians. The survey rested on three core inquiries concerning the length of Merz's tenure, relative personal suitability compared to Wüst, and the internal party consequences of the summer appointments. The results show Wüst holding a 16-point advantage over the incumbent in head-to-head personal preference.