Meloni faces Vannacci dilemma as polls show alliance would give centre-right 47.6% majority

Polling snapshot

Two fresh polls show Roberto Vannacci's Futuro Nazionale consolidating above 7%. Youtrend for Sky TG24, based on interviews on 21-22 July 2026, places the party at 7.6%, up 1.2 percentage points in three weeks, within touching distance of Forza Italia at 7.9%. The Ipsos Doxa survey for Corriere della Sera gives a slightly lower 7.1% for Vannacci, with Forza Italia at 8.3%. Fratelli d'Italia remains the largest party but slips to 26.4-26.5%, losing a further half-point after a similar drop in June. The Lega of Matteo Salvini falls to 4.9% in Youtrend and 5.1% in Ipsos, leaving it almost 3 points behind Vannacci. On the centre-left, the Partito Democratico of Elly Schlein holds around 20-21% and the Five Star Movement is at 11.5-14.5%, with Alleanza Verdi Sinistra rising to 6.8%. Undecided and abstaining voters jumped to 38%, absorbing much of the erosion from the larger parties.

Coalition arithmetic

Including Vannacci in the centre-right bloc would transform the electoral calculus. Youtrend calculates that the current government majority (FdI, Forza Italia, Lega, Noi Moderati) stands at 40.0%. Adding Futuro Nazionale pushes the centre-right total to 47.6%, enough to form a parliamentary majority. The centre-left camp (PD, M5S, AVS) reaches 40.2%, essentially tied with the four-party government bloc but trailing the five-party coalition by more than seven points. Pagnoncelli's estimates published in Corriere della Sera give 40.8% for the centre-right without Vannacci and 47.9% with him, against 44.6% for the progressive camp. Without an alliance with the former general, Meloni would be unable to reach a governing majority even with her current partners.

Meloni's dilemma and voter attitudes

Polling evidence suggests the electorate is pushing Meloni towards an accommodation. According to Youtrend, 61% of Vannacci's supporters want Futuro Nazionale to join the centre-right alliance, while 38% are opposed. More importantly, 53% of Fratelli d'Italia voters favour the pact, with 36% against and 11% undecided. The picture flips among voters of Lega and Forza Italia: only 26% back the alliance, while 48% are opposed, pointing to internal friction within the coalition. The survey underscores the risk that a separate run by Vannacci would peel away 1.5-2 million votes from the right, condemning the government parties to opposition.

Government approval sags

The political context is further strained by a widening negative verdict on the Meloni government. Youtrend records positive judgement at a stable 35%, but negative assessment jumped to 58%, yielding a net negative rating of 23 points. The polarisation is almost complete: 99% of FdI voters express a positive opinion, while 92% of opposition supporters are negative, leaving only 7% undecided. The month was marked by domestic tensions, including a ministerial initiative for a presidential pardon of a convicted jeweller and a fatal police stop in Bologna, both of which intensified the political conflict ahead of an anticipated turbulent election campaign.