EU warns US against diesel export ban as Donald Trump weighs 90-day halt amid $6.52 prices

European reliance on American diesel

The European Commission opened high-level discussions with Washington to oppose a potential 90-day ban on American diesel exports. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill stated on Thursday that any supply disruption would create negative consequences for both sides of the Atlantic. The European Union relied on the United States for 50% of its diesel imports in August 2026 after Middle Eastern shipments fell by half between March and August to 800,000 barrels per day. European retail diesel reached an average of 2.23 euros per liter, up from 2.16 euros a week earlier, while European wholesale contracts rose 7% on Wednesday. In Poland, industry forecaster e-petrol projected pump prices between 8.99 and 9.28 zlotys per liter.

Olof Gill outlined the European position during a press briefing in Brussels.

High-level contacts between the European Union and the US administration are ongoing. We expect close partners to consult each other before taking measures that affect common markets.

Washington politics and rising pump costs

Pressure to limit diesel exports follows a sharp climb in US fuel costs ahead of the 3 November midterm elections. Data from the American Automobile Association showed the national diesel average reached 6.52 dollars per gallon on 23 September, up 91 cents over the preceding month and 2.83 dollars higher than in 2025. President Donald Trump publicly backed export limits during a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Trump connected high fuel prices to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran that began on 28 February, as well as Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refining facilities. Zelenskyy indicated a willingness to limit refinery strikes if Russia halts attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Donald Trump explained his stance on keeping refined fuel within the country.

And I've been calling for it. I said, 'Let's not sell our diesel abroad.' We make a lot of diesel. This could have a mild impact on regular gasoline prices.

Political backing and administration divisions

Congressional Republicans facing voter concern over transportation costs have urged the White House to restrict fuel outflows. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley advocated for an export halt to protect agricultural producers and truck drivers. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that he remains open to an export prohibition if the policy reduces price pressure on domestic consumers.

If our administration can't place an embargo on computer chips going to China, they can place an embargo on diesel to help American farmers and truckers.

However, the proposal faces resistance inside the White House and cabinet departments. While a White House official told Reuters that a 90-day export ban is not under preparation, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that officials are examining whether a full or partial restriction is workable. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and Scott Bessent have voiced opposition to an export halt. Wright cautioned that cutting off foreign sales could force refiners to reduce overall crude processing, which would lower output and increase prices for gasoline and aviation fuel.

Industry pushback and global supply strains

The American Petroleum Institute warned that restricting trade would backfire on domestic consumers and international markets. The United States exports 1.5 million barrels of diesel daily, accounting for nearly 20% of global trade. Gulf Coast refineries represent 54% of US processing capacity and generate fuel surpluses that cannot easily move to the East Coast because of regional pipeline limitations. An American oil executive told CNBC that an export ban could raise US diesel prices by 30 cents per gallon over time. In Europe, diesel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub dropped to 1.65 million tonnes on 10 September, while the European diesel refining crack spread reached 95 dollars per barrel. Capital Economics economist David Oxley stated that export limits would exacerbate global shortages and increase fuel costs outside the United States.