Talks on detained Americans

The Trump administration is reportedly close to an agreement with Moscow that could free several Americans held in Russia, according to US officials cited by ABC News. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, are coordinating the talks, which the officials describe as being in their final stage. The central case is that of Stephen Hubbard, a 72-year-old retired teacher whom the State Department has designated as wrongfully detained in Russia. Other Americans facing charges the administration considers doubtful are also on the agenda. Sources cautioned that no definitive agreement exists yet and that its terms could still change or collapse.

On Monday, Trump said he was working to secure the release of a hostage the United States had long pursued, adding that it would happen soon, a remark reported as referring to Hubbard. On Tuesday, Deputy Foreign Minister Serghei Riabkov said the prisoner question was still being handled through intelligence channels. He said he knew Hubbard's name but had nothing to report on the case. It remains unclear what Moscow might obtain in return.

Sanctions, diesel and intelligence sharing

The talks come as the administration has taken several decisions seen as favouring Russia. Among them is the suspension of sanctions aimed at Russian officials and oligarchs. The law Congress passed in September by an overwhelming majority allowed Trump to suspend those measures, and he used that option almost immediately. He also signed an executive order postponing a bipartisan sanctions package named after the late senator Lindsey Graham, which targeted officials, banks, energy traders and the oil sector, citing the national interest.

The White House also reached a diesel arrangement with Putin. A Spectator analysis argues that the volumes in the deal are far below market flows and that Russia may lack capacity while Ukrainian long-range drone attacks continue.

The US suspended early-warning intelligence sharing with Kyiv in the week of 12 October. On Tuesday, Zelenski said Ukraine was again receiving advance warnings of incoming Russian ballistic missiles and that the arrangement was working. Rubio, who had restricted Starshield, the military version of Elon Musk's satellite internet service, that same week, described the accusations that Washington was limiting intelligence help as false and said Trump had ordered no such change.

Oslo talks and next steps

Zelenski met Witkoff in Oslo, alongside Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, with Kushner joining by video. Afterwards Zelenski asked for a trilateral meeting with Trump and Putin, and for a meeting in Oslo that would include US officials and European allies France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom. Støre described the moment as critical for Ukraine. Witkoff is due to travel to Moscow on Wednesday, 21 October, to meet Putin, and a US official said he aims to open a path to direct trilateral talks and broader multilateral negotiations.

Rubio said on Monday that discussions about a meeting had taken place, but he did not know whether everything had been finalised. The Spectator analysis reports that the Kremlin has suggested a trilateral summit in Shenzhen, China, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. Asked whether Ukraine was losing the war, Zelenski said it was not, though people were being lost to Russian attacks.

Pressure on Kyiv and Congress

Trump's tone toward Kyiv hardened over the weekend of 17 and 18 October and again on Tuesday. In a Truth Social post he accused Zelenski of prolonging the war for financial gain. At the White House on Tuesday, he said Zelenski could have made a deal two years earlier, referring to an exchange in the Oval Office in early 2025, and argued the US had received nothing in return for its aid apart from suffering, deaths and large financial losses.

Republicans in Congress are frustrated. Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee asked Trump to broker a deal under which Kyiv would limit strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Another group held an emergency call with Zelenski, while a third faction threatened to block the administration's legislative priorities in the final months of the term. Trump is preparing for midterm elections that will set the make-up of Congress for the last two years of his term.