US and Iran trade heavy strikes after Trump declares ceasefire over, with Strait of Hormuz control at the heart of renewed fighting

Ceasefire collapses over Strait of Hormuz control

President Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding with Iran "over" on Wednesday, ending a fragile truce that had paused months of fighting. The breakdown centers on a fundamental disagreement: Iran insists that all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz must be coordinated with Tehran, while Washington demands a return to unrestricted international passage. The dispute had been simmering since the April ceasefire, but it erupted into open conflict this week.

The MoU committed both sides to keeping the Strait open through coordinated arrangements for safe commercial navigation, not unilateral action. From Tehran's perspective, that means any passage or maritime security arrangements should be coordinated with Iran.

A week of escalating military exchanges

The latest round began on Monday, when at least three commercial ships were attacked outside the route designated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The US responded with waves of airstrikes, hitting more than 80 targets on Tuesday and roughly 90 more on Wednesday, including missile and drone storage sites, air defense systems, and logistics hubs along Iran's coastline. Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and later claimed strikes on a Patriot missile system in Kuwait, a satellite antenna in Qatar, and fuel depots in Bahrain. On Thursday, the US launched new airstrikes, and Iran accused Washington of striking near its sole civilian nuclear power plant in Bushehr.

Gulf allies bear the brunt

Rather than targeting US forces directly, Iran directed much of its firepower at Washington's Gulf partners. Kuwait's Ministry of Defence said it was intercepting missiles and drones, while Qatar issued an "elevated security threat" alert. Former US ambassador Douglas Silliman noted "real anger" among Gulf states, both at Tehran for the attacks and at Washington for responding with force rather than seeking a negotiated solution.

They are the ones who are the biggest losers from the renewed hostilities.

The fighting threatens energy exports from the region. An Iranian attack on the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat was among the incidents that triggered the latest escalation. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have alternative export routes, countries like Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain are more vulnerable.

Diplomatic scramble and mixed signals

Mediators are working to salvage the interim deal, but Trump's messaging has been contradictory. He threatened that future Iranian attacks would "get much worse," yet also told reporters that Iran had called and wanted "to make a deal so badly." The US president insisted the strikes do not mean a return to full-scale war, but the scale of Thursday's attacks appeared larger than previous rounds. The inflamed tensions could also affect US domestic politics, with Republicans facing midterm elections in November and gas prices a potential vulnerability.

The MoU's text left the future of the strait ambiguous: it allowed free passage for 60 days and tasked Iran with de-mining, but did not rule out a toll system or unilateral Iranian control. Iran was to hold discussions with Oman and Gulf countries to define future administration, but those talks have not resolved the core dispute.