Climate change added up to 4°C to Western Europe’s heatwave, new analysis finds
A rapid analysis by the Climameter project found that the current heatwave across Western Europe is 2°C to 4°C warmer than similar weather patterns would have been in the late 20th century, driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
The severe heatwave gripping France, Germany and other parts of Western Europe is not being caused by unusual weather circulation, but by the familiar footprint of human-caused climate change, according to a rapid attribution study released on 24 June 2026.
What the analysis measured
Researchers at Climameter compared the atmospheric circulation pattern observed on 22 June 2026 with similar patterns that occurred during the second half of the twentieth century. They concluded that temperatures are now between 2°C and 4°C higher than they were under comparable meteorological conditions decades ago. The difference is attributed to the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The weather pattern behind this heatwave is not exceptional. What is exceptional is that climate change has added up to 4 degrees Celsius to temperatures in parts of Western Europe.
How much warmer each city is
- Zaragoza
- 4 °C
- Milan
- 3.8 °C
- Paris
- 2.4 °C
- Munich
- 2.3 °C
- Frankfurt
- 1.7 °C
- Cologne
- 1.6 °C
- Berlin
- 1.2 °C
Approaching adaptation limits
Faranda warned that societies and ecosystems are nearing the limits of what they can adapt to. The Climameter team also pointed out that extreme heat events in Western Europe have been increasing faster than climate models had projected, a finding that raises concerns about how well current projections capture near-term risks.
Who produced the analysis
Climameter is a research project focused on the influence of climate change on European weather. It is funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and hosted by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL). The project uses historical weather analogues to isolate the effect of long-term warming from natural variability.
