Trump announces Russian diesel supply deal as US, Ukrainian and European negotiators meet in Miami

Diesel supply announced after Trump-Putin call

On Friday Donald Trump said he had concluded a call with Vladimir Putin in which Russia agreed to supply diesel to the United States and global markets. In a post on his Truth social network, Trump wrote that Russia would immediately deliver over 300,000 tonnes of diesel, another 500,000 tonnes in November and 1,000,000 tonnes right after that. He added that Russia would deliver a further 3,000,000 tonnes in a short time, depending on the capacity of its refineries. The US Treasury said the Office of Foreign Assets Control was issuing a temporary general license with immediate effect to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market. ANSA reports that the suspension of US sanctions runs until April, and Trump presented the deal as a way to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections next month.

I have just concluded a very successful call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kyiv and Moscow respond

Putin confirmed the arrangement and said he was confident it would have a 'positive impact on the entire global economy'. Russian deputy prime minister Novak said Russia was ready to begin supplying diesel to the United States and other countries this month, and that exports would rise further in November and December as domestic refineries resume operations after scheduled maintenance. Novak also said Russia would immediately start easing diesel export restrictions.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the arrangement an investment in a war that should end, and in a statement he said the money would go toward the war.

All that money goes toward the war against people, against Ukraine, against all of us.

According to the Kremlin, Putin told Trump that an immediate resumption of trilateral peace talks was unlikely, because Kyiv had launched drone attacks on Moscow and polling stations on the main voting day of last month's Russian parliamentary elections. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov described the call in these terms.

the Kyiv regime effectively disrupted the possibility of an immediate resumption of the negotiation process

On Thursday US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said that Russia's war in Ukraine was at a dangerous stalemate.

Miami talks

Negotiators for the US, Ukraine and European countries held six hours of talks in Miami on Friday, with the aim of agreeing a unified proposal to end the war. A person familiar with the talks said the goal was to reach agreement in the coming weeks so the proposal could be presented to Russia and a breakthrough sought before the winter. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner took part, along with Ukrainian delegations and representatives from Europe and NATO.

The discussions covered a post-war package for Ukraine with security guarantees from the US and Europe, a post-war economic plan, and a pathway to EU accession for Kyiv. The delegations also discussed 'some ideas' on territory, which the person declined to elaborate on, and a Europe-Russia security architecture. Ukraine has been adamant that Russia cede territory it seized during the conflict, while Trump has said both sides will need to compromise.

Doubts on prices and EU response

Bloomberg analysts wrote that lifting the US sanctions would not 'solve the market's problems', which stem from the ongoing war in the Middle East, and could only have a 'cooling' effect on prices. They also said Russia might be unable to export the fuel in material quantities after repeated Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure. Reuters reported that analysts said the amounts would likely not reduce prices greatly.

On Saturday Kallas wrote on social media that the suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel gives Moscow greater revenues to finance the war.

This is not the moment to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe will not do so.

Kallas said EU foreign ministers intend to approve on Monday the broadest package of sanctions listings against Russia's war machine since the start of the war. She also pointed to over 80 Ukrainian civilians killed in two days of Russian attacks and to intensified Russian hybrid attacks against EU member states and NATO allies.