Swiss polls show growing opposition to '10 million' immigration cap, civil service reform hangs in balance

Shifting momentum against the initiative

Two major polls published on 3 June show a clear trend towards rejecting the Swiss People's Party (SVP) initiative 'No to a 10-million Switzerland! (Sustainability Initiative)', which will be put to a national vote on 14 June 2026. The second SRG survey by the GFS Bern institute found that 52% of voters would have rejected the text if the vote had been held on 23 May, up from 47% a month earlier. The Tamedia/20 Minuten survey by the LeeWas institute showed an identical 52% against, compared with 46% in its first wave. A YouGov poll the previous week had also pointed to a slight no trend, with 51% opposed and 43% in favour.

The shift follows a classic pattern for popular initiatives, where support tends to erode as voters engage more closely with the text. GFS Bern noted that only 3% of respondents remained undecided. The SVP's initiative would require the Federal Council to act once the permanent resident population reaches 9.5 million, ensuring it does not exceed 10 million before 2050.

Experience also shows that polls can be way off. We won't be deterred!

Party lines and swing voters

Support for the initiative remains almost unanimous among SVP voters (96% in the SRG poll, 95% in Tamedia), while the Social Democrats (93% and 88% against), Greens (89% and 82%), and Green Liberals (84% and 81%) are firmly opposed. The decisive battleground lies with the Centre and FDP electorates. Centre voters have moved from 50% to 61% against, and FDP sympathisers have flipped from 54% in favour in April to 52% against now. FDP co-president Susanne Vincenz-Stauffacher said party assemblies consistently conclude that the SVP initiative is the wrong path, even though members acknowledge the problems.

One agrees that problems exist, but in the discussion one quickly realises that the SVP initiative is the wrong way.

Demographic and regional divides

The gender gap has reversed since the first survey wave. Women now oppose the initiative more strongly than men, with 54% to 57% voting no, while men are split roughly evenly (47% to 50% against). Among age groups, 18- to 34-year-olds have shifted from 52% in favour to 53% against. The 35- to 49-year-old bracket still supports the initiative, but the yes share has shrunk by five percentage points. Geographically, French-speaking Switzerland is more clearly opposed (61% to 56% no), while German-speaking voters reject it only narrowly. Italian-speaking Ticino shows a neck-and-neck race (48% no in SRG, 50% in Tamedia). Urban voters are strongly against (55% to 60%), while rural regions would accept the text (53% in both surveys).

Civil service reform in a dead heat

The second national ballot item, a reform of the Civil Service Act, is too close to call. The SRG survey shows 48% in favour and 46% against, down from a 52% yes in the first wave. The Tamedia poll shows both camps tied at 48%. GFS Bern project leader Martina Mousson described the situation as atypical for a government bill, which normally attracts more support. The reform aims to ensure civil service remains an exception by requiring all conscripts to complete at least 150 days of service, targeting those who switch late in their military obligation. The referendum against the proposal has gained traction, with opposition arguments gaining ground.

This proposal has been caught by a no-trend. We started with an approving majority, and now this no-trend has resulted in a stalemate.

What happens next

Both campaigns enter their final stretch with the vote on 14 June. Mobilisation will be decisive, particularly among typically non-voting citizens and the unaffiliated, where 11% remain undecided. The polls were largely conducted before a knife attack in Winterthur, leaving open the question of whether that event will influence the final outcome. The SVP parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi vowed to fight until the last day, accusing SP Federal Councillor Beat Jans of running a campaign with many false statements.