Spain expects 100 million tourists in 2026 as summer bookings surge 6%
Spain's tourism minister Jordi Hereu presented summer forecasts on Monday, projecting 43 million international visitors between June and September, a 6% increase, with spending reaching €64 billion. The country is now likely to surpass 100 million tourists for the full year.
Summer forecast
Spain expects 43 million international tourists between June and September, a 6% increase over the same period in 2025. Spending is projected to reach €64 billion, up 10%, reinforcing tourism as the main driver of Spain's economic growth. The minister noted that the growth in spending outpacing arrivals aligns with the government's strategy of prioritising higher value-added tourism.
- Jan-May arrivals
- 5 %
- Jan-May spending
- 7.8 %
- Summer arrivals (forecast)
- 6 %
- Summer spending (forecast)
- 10 %
Year-to-date momentum
In the first five months of 2026, Spain welcomed 36.8 million foreign visitors, 5% more than a year earlier, with spending climbing 7.8% to €50.257 billion. May alone set a historic record with 10.2 million arrivals, a 9.5% jump. The strong spring performance has lifted expectations, and the government now projects 80 million arrivals by October 1.
- Spain ends 2025 with a record 96.8 million tourists, up 3.2% from 2024.
- May 2026 sets a record with 10.2 million international visitors, a 9.5% increase.
- Minister Jordi Hereu presents summer forecast: 43 million tourists, +6%; spending €64 billion, +10%.
- Total solar eclipse visible across Spain, driving rural tourism demand.
- Projected cumulative arrivals reach 80 million by October 1.
- Government says 100 million tourists in 2026 is 'probable' if trend continues.
Geopolitical tailwind
The conflict in the Middle East, involving the US and Israel against Iran, has diverted travellers away from destinations like Egypt and Turkey, boosting demand for southern Mediterranean countries. Hereu acknowledged that three months ago the ministry feared the conflict would slow arrivals, but data showed remarkable resilience. He compared the sector's adaptability to its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war.
Three months ago we thought the Middle East conflict could slow tourist arrivals, but the data shows remarkable resilience despite the circumstances.
Eclipse boosts rural Spain
The total solar eclipse on August 12, visible across a large swath of Spain, has already driven full bookings in many rural accommodations. Interior regions and the so-called Green Spain are expected to grow faster than the six most touristic autonomous communities. Hotel chains like Meliá, Barceló and Riu anticipate coastal occupancy rates near 90%.
Qualitative focus over volume
Hereu stressed that the government is not fixated on the 100 million figure, calling it a consequence of policy rather than a target. Employment in tourism has surpassed 3 million affiliates, up 3.2% year-on-year, with temporary contracts falling from one in three workers to one in five. The minister emphasised that added value, better wages, and equitable distribution of benefits are the real priorities.
We are not obsessed with the 100 million figure. We are much more interested in the added value that tourism generates, because that is what allows us to redistribute benefits better, generate better wages, and improve equity.
