SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage to hit Moon in unplanned collision on August 5

The Falcon 9's mission

On January 15, 2025, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Earth carrying two lunar landers: Blue Ghost, built by US company Firefly Aerospace, and Resilience, developed by Japanese startup ispace. The mission successfully deployed both payloads, but the rocket's upper stage was left in a high, unstable orbit. Over the following 18 months, gravitational interactions gradually altered its trajectory, putting it on a collision course with the Moon.

Predicted impact

US astronomer Bill Gray and NASA have calculated that the upper stage will strike the lunar surface on August 5, 2026. The impact is unplanned and uncontrolled, meaning the exact location and effects are uncertain. Gray, known for tracking space debris, first identified the object's path. NASA confirmed the prediction using its own orbital models.

Visibility and observation

William Cooke, a manager at NASA, said the impact will be extremely difficult to observe from Earth. The collision will occur on the lunar far side or in a region not easily visible, and the lack of atmosphere means there will be no fireball. However, NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) will fly over the expected impact site a few days before and after August 5. The probe's cameras and instruments may capture before-and-after images, revealing the size and shape of the new crater.

I think it will be very, very hard to see, if not impossible.

SpaceX's silence

SpaceX, the private space company founded by Elon Musk, has not responded to requests for comment. The company has not issued any statement about the Falcon 9 upper stage or the predicted impact. SpaceX regularly de-orbits its rocket stages after missions, but in this case the stage was left in a high orbit beyond immediate disposal.

A recurring problem

This would be the second known unplanned collision of a rocket part with the Moon. About four years ago, NASA scientists identified debris from a Chinese rocket that had struck the lunar surface. The object was likely the upper stage of the Long March rocket used for the Chang'e 5-T1 mission, which launched in 2014. China denied those reports, but images from LRO showed a double crater consistent with a rocket body impact. Planned impacts, by contrast, have been conducted multiple times for scientific research, including NASA's LCROSS mission in 2009 and several lunar lander disposals.

Scientific opportunity

Although the impact is unplanned, it offers a rare chance to study how a modern rocket stage interacts with the lunar surface. The LRO's flyover will provide high-resolution images of the impact site before and after, allowing scientists to measure the crater dimensions and analyze the ejecta. Such data can improve models of lunar geology and help plan future missions. The event is a reminder of the growing problem of space debris beyond Earth orbit.