SpaceX shares whipsaw in volatile post-IPO trading as index, lockup and options events loom

A record-breaking debut

SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share in an offering that ultimately raised $85.7 billion after the full exercise of the greenshoe option, making it the biggest IPO ever. The stock opened at $150 on the New York Stock Exchange and closed its first day at $160.95, a 19% gain. Within its first trading days, the shares surged as much as 67%, peaking around $220 and briefly propelling the company's market capitalisation above $3 trillion – enough to leapfrog Microsoft and Amazon and land behind only Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple and the two it had just passed.

The wild ride turns

By the week of June 23 the mood had soured. A 16% drop on Monday erased $400 billion in value, and the stock dipped below its $150 opening price on Tuesday, touching $147.11 amid a broader Nasdaq selloff. The shares rallied to close at $162.80, up 5% on the day, but remained 26% below their post-IPO high. Analysts cited by Bespoke Investment Group called the intraday bounce a test: "If these levels hold, it will be viewed optimistically, but if they break, it could mark a sentiment shift for the more high-flying areas of the market."

Retail investors boxed in

Retail interest was extraordinary. Small investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX stock over the first five days, according to Vanda Research, more than they spent on the next seven largest U.S. companies combined. Yet their freedom to trade is sharply curtailed. Platforms such as Fidelity, Robinhood, E*TRADE and SoFi impose 15- to 30-day holding periods on IPO shares; flipping too soon can trigger temporary or permanent bans from future offerings. "It's very common for brokerage firms to put restrictions on flipping for retail investors," said University of Florida IPO expert Jay Ritter. "But if the hedge funds are profitable enough customers for banks, they can do whatever they want." The asymmetry was laid bare by an unnamed asset manager who received a $300 million allocation with no restrictions and told Reuters they intended "to sell it straight into the open and return cash within five days."

Index methodology under a spotlight

SpaceX's sheer size forced index providers to reveal their hand. Nasdaq added the stock rapidly to its Nasdaq 100, reinforcing that index's reputation for embracing high-growth, high-volatility names. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the S&P 500, held off. "The IPO is the headline, but the real story is about index methodology," said Franklin Templeton's Dina Ting. A wave of mega-IPOs expected to continue with Anthropic and OpenAI may force a broader reassessment of how passive funds handle freshly listed giants.

Musk's fortune and AI deals

The IPO made Elon Musk the first person in the world to surpass a trillion-dollar net worth. He controls roughly 85% of SpaceX voting rights and holds 42% of the equity, according to the prospectus. The company has also been busy locking in compute deals that feed its artificial-intelligence ambitions: a $150-million-a-month agreement with Reflection AI gives the startup access to SpaceX's Colossus 2 data centre, following a deal earlier in June under which Google pays $920 million monthly. "Their revenue is increasing, and their balance sheet is getting better, not worse," said Michael Monaghan of FounderETFs. "That should be good for the stock."

What comes next

Options on SpaceX were set to begin trading as soon as June 16, with early activity expected to be heavy and expensive. SpaceX is also implementing a staged lockup release – earlier than the usual six-month period – to spread out the supply of freely tradable shares. Some brokers have already imposed 31-day minimum holding periods for IPO shares. The staggered unlock, combined with the start of sell-side research coverage and index-driven buying, is likely to keep volatility elevated for months, analysts said.