France forecast second heatwave of June as temperatures climb to 35°C this weekend

Forecast and timeline

A mass of dry, hot air from the Maghreb will push into France starting Saturday 13 June, bringing the country's second heatwave of the year before the summer solstice. The event follows an unusually early and severe ten-day heat episode in late May that was described as historic. This time around, temperatures are forecast to climb rapidly, first in the South and South-West, then extending to the North-East next week.

“A dry and hot air mass from North Africa will cause temperature increases of 7 to 8°C on average above seasonal norms.”

What will the temperatures be

On Saturday, the 30°C mark will be reached across almost the entire southern half of the country, with local peaks of 35°C in Occitanie and the Bordeaux area. Sunday will see similar or slightly higher readings, with inland Brittany and Pays de la Loire possibly hitting 30°C. By Monday, the heat remains concentrated in the South-West, but from Tuesday it will intensify and spread towards the North-East, accompanied by tropical nights where minima stay above 20°C over much of the country.

“The temperature conditions expected next week are not reaching unprecedented values, but this will be the second heat episode before the start of calendar summer.”

What is driving the heatwave

A large high-pressure system, described as a 'powerful anticyclone', is settling over France, repulsing the westerly flow that kept June cool so far. This ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere favours strong sunshine and pulls very warm air directly from the Maghreb via Spain. The result is a rapid switch: in La Rochelle, for example, the mercury barely exceeded 20°C on Thursday but is forecast to surpass 30°C on Saturday and Sunday, a 10°C jump in two days.

Connection to climate change

Météo-France noted that the late May episode was 'historic' and of unprecedented earliness. While the current forecast does not project records, the repeated occurrence of heat episodes before summer reflects a broader shift.

“These heat episodes before the start of summer are becoming increasingly likely in a changing climate.”

How long will it last and will there be storms

Météo Consult forecasts that the heat could persist at least until the Fête de la Musique on 21 June, with 'very hot air' continuing to push up from Africa. For the coming week, storm activity will remain isolated and confined to mountain areas because of the high pressure dome. However, as the solstice weekend approaches, thunderstorm risk may increase, making longer-range forecasts more uncertain.