Scope downgrades France to A+ as public debt is forecast to reach 121.7% of GDP

Sovereign rating downgraded by Scope Ratings

Scope Ratings lowered France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ on 18 September 2026, while adjusting its rating outlook from negative to stable. The agency attributed the decision to a persistent deterioration in budgetary perspectives, driven by expanding public debt, persistently high deficits, and limited progress on structural economic reforms. Scope noted that the French government has faced recurring difficulties in complying with its self-imposed deficit targets. The action brings Scope's sovereign rating to the same level as Fitch Ratings, which maintains France at A+ with a stable outlook.

Rising borrowing costs and political fragmentation

The credit downgrade reflects a sharp rise in French sovereign borrowing costs that has developed steadily since January 2026. Ten-year government bond yields rose to 4.50% in mid-September 2026, reaching their highest marker since 2008 and compounding the cost of servicing existing obligations. Scope stated that higher borrowing costs will further reduce government room for maneuver, requiring larger budgetary adjustments to stabilize the national debt trajectory. In addition, the agency pointed to the difficult political context characterized by heightened polarization and fragmentation in the National Assembly since its dissolution in 2024. Scope stated that this political division has impeded fiscal consolidation efforts and will likely remain elevated beyond the 2027 presidential election.

Debt projections reach highest levels since 1995

On 19 September 2026, the Ministry of Economy and Finance released official estimates indicating that French public debt will rise to 119.3% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 121.7% in 2027. According to historical data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), these projected figures represent France's highest debt-to-GDP levels since 1995. In the first quarter of 2026, total public debt stood at 3,536.1 billion euros, amounting to 117.5% of GDP. This total left France carrying the third-highest debt burden in the eurozone, surpassed only by Greece at 137% of GDP and Italy between 137% and 139%. The finance ministry described the expansion as an inevitable outcome of ongoing fiscal shortfalls.

This increase is mechanical. It is the consequence of a deficit that remains high.

Draft budget for 2027 and deficit revisions

The updated debt figures emerged one day after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu presented the broad parameters of the 2027 budget framework. The plan outlines approximately 54 billion euros in consolidation efforts intended to bring the public deficit down to 5.0% of GDP in 2027, down from an expected 5.4% in 2026. The government had previously targeted a 5.0% deficit for 2026, but acknowledged one week prior that this goal could not be achieved due to economic shocks including drought and the Middle East conflict. Under Lecornu's proposal, civil servants and retirees will be asked to contribute to the budgetary consolidation. Overnight leading into 19 September 2026, the finance ministry submitted the 2027 budgetary texts to the High Council of Public Finances (HCFP), which must assess the credibility of the government's macroeconomic path.