Russia is preparing military provocations against Baltic states or Poland to test NATO unity, Latvian intelligence warns

Intelligence reports point to a deliberate test

Latvian intelligence services said on Monday they had spotted indicators that Russia is assembling military provocations targeting either the Baltic states or Poland. The assessment, shared with The Guardian, rules out a large-scale assault. Instead it points toward hybrid actions, such as missile or drone strikes, intended to deliver a political message. The intelligence officials said the aim would be to test US support for its three smallest NATO allies, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

A senior political source from a second NATO member country disclosed a similar warning last week. That official told The Guardian that intelligence gathered by their services suggested President Vladimir Putin was preparing something against the Baltic states. The remarks align with a sense among allied capitals that Moscow is willing to raise the stakes while it struggles on the battlefield in Ukraine.

We share, without exception, the opinion that the situation is very unstable and that various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months. We want to prepare as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk.

The Polish prime minister spoke at a press conference after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdansk on Thursday. He said that as nations on the front line, Poland and the Baltic states needed to be ready.

What form the provocations might take

Neither Latvian nor allied assessments describe a full military offensive. Latvian intelligence underscored that Russia lacks the capacity to open a second front. Instead, the services said they are considering hybrid attacks: missiles, drones, or other actions designed to send a message. That message, according to officials, would be: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems.

A separate readout from Lithuanian intelligence, reported by Il Messaggero, echoed the same assessment. It said Russia was evaluating the option of hybrid strikes without the ability to sustain a second theatre of war. The reports remain thin on operational detail, suggesting any action would fall well short of an invasion.

Moscow will look for ways to disrupt the current trend, whether through horizontal escalation, extending the conflict to other countries, or acting on other fronts. We should not expect Russia to surrender passively.

Giles, a Russia specialist at Chatham House, told The Guardian that the Kremlin would try to shift the dynamic, either by widening the war geographically or by launching covert operations elsewhere.

Pressure from Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign

The intelligence warnings arrive as Ukraine has built a long-range strike capability that can hit targets up to 2,000 kilometres inside Russian territory. On the night of Thursday to Friday, at least 28 drones heading toward Moscow were shot down within roughly one hour. The expanding reach of Ukrainian attacks, reaching areas near Moscow and St. Petersburg, has put the Kremlin under growing pressure.

Analysts see the threatened provocations as a response to that shift. If Russia cannot force a result on Ukraine's front lines, it may attempt to split NATO's attention by opening small, ambiguous crises elsewhere, particularly on the alliance's eastern border.

NATO summit in Ankara looms

The next major test of alliance cohesion will come at the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday, 7 and 8 July. It remains unclear whether President Donald Trump will attend. Trump has previously expressed frustration that European allies blocked his administration from using military bases for strikes on Iran. The uncertainty over his presence adds another layer of tension to an alliance already absorbing the warnings from Riga, Tallinn and Warsaw.