Romanian leu weakens to 5.35 per euro as foreign reserves drop by 4.8 billion euros in September

Interbank currency pressures

On 1 October 2026, the Romanian leu experienced sustained downward pressure against the euro on the interbank market. The European currency reached 5.35 lei in interbank trading, moving significantly higher after 14:45 when quotations touched 5.3459 lei before trading at 5.3409 lei. Earlier in the day, the National Bank of Romania set its official reference exchange rate at 13:00 at 5.2777 lei per euro. This level remains close to the 5.2788 lei per euro reference rate registered on 23 September. The widening divergence between the central bank official fixing and afternoon interbank market transactions reflects immediate currency demand across commercial institutions.

Central bank foreign reserve drawdowns

The currency pressure coincided with official data showing a contraction in Romania's foreign reserve holdings during September 2026. Data published by the National Bank of Romania showed foreign exchange reserves fell by 4.8 billion euros, or 7.4%, settling at 60.06 billion euros at the end of September compared with 64.87 billion euros on 31 August. Total international reserves, which include both foreign exchange and gold holdings, dropped from 77.63 billion euros to 72.34 billion euros over the same monthly interval. During September, total foreign currency inflows reached 3.3 billion euros while total outflows amounted to 8.1 billion euros. Public debt repayments of principal and interest in foreign currency accounted for 2.684 billion euros of those outflows, with the remainder consisting of minimum reserve requirement adjustments and European Commission account operations. The national gold reserve held steady in physical terms at 103.6 tonnes, though international price movements lowered its euro valuation from 12.76 billion to 12.28 billion euros.

Central bank balancing act and policy response

The reserve reduction in September erased the gains accumulated in August, which had been supported by roughly 2.5 billion euros in pre-financing from the European Commission SAFE loan facility. National Bank of Romania spokesperson Dan Suciu acknowledged the complex environment facing monetary authorities as they weigh foreign exchange volatility against interest rate settings.

It is an attempt, but indeed difficult, because what the bank is trying to do now is to find a balance between exchange rate variation and interest rate variation. In complicated periods, this balance is not easy to find.

Suciu noted that central bank interventions and policy choices directly alter liquidity conditions within the commercial banking system.

It is important to find it because, at the same time, the decisions taken by the National Bank determine certain developments, variations in market liquidity, and then certain difficulties can arise in terms of financing the economy, but even the budget. We are in such a period that we are trying to manage.

Political backdrop and upcoming debt obligations

The economic pressure coincides with an ongoing governmental vacuum in Bucharest following parliamentary deadlock. A proposed cabinet headed by Siegfried Mureșan failed to obtain parliamentary approval, securing only 182 votes in favour and 15 against out of 197 votes cast, well below the statutory threshold of 233 votes. Despite the governance impasse, external debt repayment demands will lessen in the near term. Scheduled public debt payments denominated in foreign currency direct or guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance fall to approximately 350 million euros in October 2026. This represents an eightfold reduction in debt servicing obligations compared with the heavy obligations settled in September.