Romania's ANM issues four-week forecast: cool, wet start gives way to August heatwave in west and northwest

Romania's National Meteorological Administration released its updated four-week forecast on 21 July 2026, covering the period through 17 August. The outlook, built on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), describes a distinct shift: a cool, stormy opening week gives way to near-normal conditions before above-average heat settles in for the first half of August.

Week-by-week breakdown

The forecast divides the interval into four weekly segments. During the first week (20-27 July), thermal values will sit below the multi-year norm across the entire country. The negative temperature deviation will be most pronounced in the southeastern regions. Precipitation will run above normal in those same southeastern areas while the rest of the country sees a deficit. Maximum temperatures this week will range between 21 degrees Celsius in eastern Transylvania and 30 degrees in western Oltenia.

The second week (27 July-3 August) brings a return to near-normal temperatures overall, though readings may remain slightly lower in the southeast and slightly higher in the west. Rainfall amounts will be slightly below normal in every region. By the weekend, the warming trend will push maximums back to between 28 and 35 degrees.

The final two weeks (3-10 August and 10-17 August) complete the warm-up. Average air temperatures will exceed the normal for the period across most of the country, with the strongest positive anomalies concentrated in western and northwestern Romania. Precipitation will be deficient in the intra-Carpathian regions during the first half of August and close to normal elsewhere. By the closing week, rainfall amounts are expected to align with seasonal averages nationwide.

Regional contrasts

The southeast bears the brunt of the cool, wet opening. ANM notes an accentuated negative thermal deviation there, paired with surplus rainfall. By contrast, the west and northwest see the most pronounced warming once August arrives. The intra-Carpathian area faces a drier spell during 3-10 August, while other regions hover near normal precipitation levels.

What the meteorologists say

The estimates represent weekly averages of temperature and precipitation deviations compared to the 2006-2025 baseline. Short-duration extreme phenomena are not captured in this type of medium-range outlook.

Valorile termice se vor situa sub cele specifice pentru această săptămână pe întreg teritoriul României, dar cu o abatere termică negativă mai accentuată în regiunile sud-estice.

The institution also flagged ongoing instability through the current week, with torrential rain, electrical discharges, and strong winds expected across large parts of the country.

Data and limitations

The forecasts are produced by ECMWF and issued by ANM. They express weekly averages against the 2006-2025 reference period. The methodology explicitly excludes short-lived extreme events, meaning local storms or brief heat spikes may not appear in the trend picture.

Romania enters the final third of July under cooler-than-usual conditions, but the projections point to a rapid reversal. By early August, most of the country will be on the warm side of the climatological baseline, with the west and northwest recording the largest positive temperature departures.