Romania forecasts warm October with early highs of 28 degrees before weekend cooling

Four-week national weather outlook

Romania will experience warmer than average conditions through 2 November 2026, according to four-week meteorological projections released by the National Meteorological Administration (ANM). The positive temperature anomaly will be most pronounced during the first week, running from 5 to 12 October, particularly across mountainous regions and the northeastern parts of the country. Rainfall across most of Romania will remain deficient during this initial seven-day period, while the northwestern regions are projected to record precipitation totals close to climatological norms.

From 12 October through 19 October, average temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal norms across the entire country. Rainfall is expected to normalize during this second week, with precipitation volumes returning to standard levels in all Romanian regions. Projections for 19 to 26 October indicate a continuation of slightly warmer than normal mean air temperatures nationwide, accompanied by normal precipitation patterns. The final week of the forecast, spanning 26 October to 2 November, shows thermal values holding slightly above typical period averages across Romania, with standard rainfall volumes across most of the territory.

Regional warmth in Banat and Crișana

In the western regions of Banat and Crișana, daytime temperatures between 5 and 8 October will run well above multiannual averages for the first decade of October. Afternoon highs in both areas will generally range between 25 and 28 degrees Celsius during this warm period. Nighttime minimum temperatures will hold near 6 degrees Celsius in Banat and between 6 and 8 degrees Celsius in Crișana over the first three nights of the interval.

Thermal conditions will shift on 9 and 10 October as a cooling trend lowers daytime maximums toward approximately 20 degrees Celsius in both western provinces. Nighttime temperatures will temporarily peak between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius on 9 October before settling around 8 degrees Celsius for the remainder of the forecast period. During the second week of the outlook, average maximum temperatures are expected to reach 21 to 22 degrees Celsius in Banat and 20 to 21 degrees Celsius in Crișana.

Transylvania and northern regions

Transylvania will see a distinct contrast between daytime warmth and cold overnight conditions from 5 to 9 October. Daytime maximum temperatures in the region will average between 21 and 25 degrees Celsius, while nighttime and early morning minimums will drop to between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius. A cooling transition is expected toward the end of the first week, bringing daytime highs down to 18 to 19 degrees Celsius on 11 October.

Overnight minimums in Transylvania will average around 6 degrees Celsius at the end of the first week and through the 12 to 18 October period, with daytime highs averaging 20 degrees Celsius in the second week. In neighboring Maramureș, daytime temperatures will rise steadily through 8 October, reaching values between 25 and 26 degrees Celsius.

Precipitation timing and forecast methodology

Localized rainfall will arrive across western and central Romania starting on 9, 10, and 11 October, ending the dry spell of early October. Further precipitation is forecast for the second week, with higher probabilities centered around 14 October in Banat and Crișana, as well as after 17 October in Crișana. In Transylvania, localized showers are forecast for 10 and 11 October, with additional rain events possible during the subsequent week.

The regional estimates for the 5 to 18 October period were generated using numerical products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Romanian meteorologists adapted these regional models statistically to project temperature deviations and precipitation probability windows for each province.