Western Romania to see temperatures 5°C above average in first half of August, ANM forecast shows
The National Meteorological Administration's updated four-week outlook shows temperatures well above the 2006-2025 average, with the west facing a 5°C anomaly and a rainfall deficit across the country in the first week.
Romania's National Meteorological Administration (ANM) has updated its four-week forecast for the period 3-31 August 2026, drawing on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The outlook points to persistently above-average temperatures across the country, with the strongest positive anomaly concentrated in the western regions. A marked rainfall deficit is expected during the first week, particularly in intra-Carpathian areas, before conditions gradually return to normal by the end of the month.
Temperature outlook
For the week of 3-10 August, mean temperatures will exceed the 2006-2025 baseline across all of Romania, with the largest deviation in the west. ProTV reported that western areas could see values at least 5°C above the 20-year average, while the rest of the country faces a 2-3°C surplus during the first half of the month. The following week (10-17 August) keeps above-normal readings in the southwest, west, northwest and centre, with other regions near normal. From 17-24 August, the warmth persists in the west, southwest, north and centre, and by the final week (24-31 August) only western and central areas remain slightly above normal, with the rest of the country close to the climatological average.
Precipitation and drought
Rainfall will be deficient nationwide in the opening week, especially in the intra-Carpathian regions. The deficit continues in the west and northwest during 10-17 August, while the rest of the country sees near-normal amounts. From 17 August onward, the precipitation regime is expected to align with normal levels across the entire territory, signalling an end to the early-month dry spell.
Regional breakdown
The west of Romania bears the brunt of both the heat and the dryness. The 5°C anomaly cited for the first half of August is the most extreme departure in the forecast, and the western and northwestern counties also face the longest stretch of below-normal rainfall, lasting through mid-month. Central regions share the elevated temperatures but see a quicker recovery in precipitation. Eastern and southern areas, while still warmer than average, are closer to normal on both metrics and return to typical conditions sooner.
Forecast limitations
ANM stressed that the product captures weekly averages of temperature and precipitation deviations relative to the 2006-2025 reference period. It cannot anticipate short-duration extreme phenomena such as sudden storms or heat spikes. The update was issued on 3 August 2026 and reflects the latest ECMWF model run.
- Temperatures above normal nationwide, especially in the west; rainfall deficit across the country, most pronounced in intra-Carpathian regions.
- Above-normal temperatures in southwest, west, northwest and centre, near normal elsewhere; precipitation deficit in west and northwest, near normal elsewhere.
- Temperatures above normal in west, southwest, north and centre, near normal elsewhere; precipitation near normal nationwide.
- Temperatures slightly above normal in western and central regions, near normal elsewhere; precipitation within normal limits across the country.
