Rhine hits lowest level ever recorded at Lobith as drought strands ships and forces German production cuts

The Rhine has dropped to its lowest level ever recorded in the Netherlands, while the benchmark gauge in Germany hovers near a depth that could stop commercial shipping within days. The drought, driven by extreme heat across western Europe, is forcing manufacturers to cut production, stranding vessels, and pushing logistics operators to levy surcharges of up to €1,280 per container.

A record broken at Lobith

At Lobith, where the river enters the Netherlands, Rijkswaterstaat measured a water level of 6.47 metres above NAP on Thursday afternoon. That breaks the previous low of 6.48 metres set in August 2022. The agency expects the level to fall further in the coming days. Discharge at the same point is 692 cubic metres per second, less than half the normal July flow of roughly 2,000 cubic metres per second. Earlier in July, the discharge had already fallen below 780,000 litres per second, beating a record from 1976.

Upstream in Switzerland, the river is also at historic lows. At Basel, outflow is about 460,000 litres per second, below the previous July record of 553,000 litres per second set in 1949.

German industry braces for stoppages

The benchmark water level on the German stretch of the Rhine has fallen to near 25 centimetres in recent days, close to the 2018 record low. Container terminal operator Contargo warned on Thursday that "reliable and economically viable inland shipping transport is no longer guaranteed" and that a complete halt may be imminent. The company is charging surcharges that reach €1,280 for a 40-foot container bound for southern Germany.

BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth told analysts that force majeure declarations or product shortages in certain cases could not be ruled out. He noted that acute supply shortages of individual raw materials could have "ripple effects" in production at complex chemical plants. The company said it is better prepared than in 2018, when it took a €250 million hit to operating profit, but acknowledged disruptions at its Ludwigshafen site are possible if water levels keep sinking.

Covestro said it built up raw material stocks several weeks ago and switched to vessels with a shallower draft, measures that "entailed higher costs." Thyssenkrupp's steel plant in Duisburg already scaled back production slightly earlier in July. Deutsche Bank economist Marc Schattenberg said the volumes that would need to shift are so large that replacing them by rail or road would be difficult, especially with key connections under construction.

The volumes that would have to be shifted are so large that replacing them by rail or road would be difficult, especially as some important connections are currently undergoing construction work.

Dutch waterways and the Twente canal closure

In the Netherlands, the sluice complex at Eefde is completely blocked, cutting off access from the IJssel to the Twente canals and hitting industry in the Twente region. The measure was taken to prevent "irreparable damage" to the hinterland, including already weakened embankments along the Almelo-De Haandrik canal. Elsewhere, skippers face longer waits at locks as authorities limit operations to retain freshwater.

Barge skipper Dick Mudde, whose 65-metre vessel normally carries 690 tonnes, said he can now load only 220 tonnes on some stretches of the Rhine. "And then I'm lucky our ship is only 2.30 metres deep. That lets me keep sailing longer in low water than bigger ships that sit deeper," he said. He described seeing sandbanks and stretches of riverbed exposed, adding that the problems started unusually early this year and have already lasted weeks.

Zandbanken en stukken oever kwamen tevoorschijn. Dat is eerder gebeurd. Maar dit keer zijn de problemen al vroeg in het jaar. Het duurt ook al weken. Dat is zorgelijk.

The Danube and wider European picture

The drought is not confined to the Rhine. On the Danube, a Swiss cruise ship with 186 passengers ran aground near Calafat, Romania, on Monday evening. Discharge on the lower Danube has fallen to 1,650 cubic metres per second, compared with a normal July flow of 4,700 cubic metres per second. Italy has raised its drought alert level for the Po Valley.

In the Netherlands, a national water shortage (alert phase 2) has been in effect since 16 July. The Management Team for Water Shortages, which brings together Rijkswaterstaat, water boards, drinking water companies, provinces, and three ministries, now meets every Thursday. After the latest meeting, the infrastructure ministry said previously taken supra-regional measures remain sufficient for now, though regional authorities may impose additional restrictions.

Long-term adaptation and painful choices

Co Verdaas, the Dutch government's top water advisor, warned that the pace of change is outstripping what technical measures alone can solve. He said salinisation of the western Netherlands, driven by insufficient freshwater inflow, can only be slowed, not stopped. "Bulb cultivation as we know it in the west will no longer be possible there in about twenty years," he said. "Bulbs cannot tolerate salt."

De verandering gaat zó hard, dit is niet meer alleen met technische maatregelen op te lossen.

He added that all open-field crops in coastal regions will be affected and that there is no manual of pain-free solutions. The IJsselmeer water level has already been raised to create a freshwater buffer, but further increases risk flooding cities like Zwolle during heavy rain events.