El Niño forecast to rank among largest ever, with 81% chance of very strong peak by December
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says the developing El Niño has an 81% chance of reaching 'very strong' status between October and December, potentially surpassing the devastating 1997–1998 event.
Forecast update
The El Niño weather pattern strengthened over the past month and is now highly likely to become one of the most intense events since record‑keeping began in 1950, U.S. forecasters said on 9 July. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) raised the odds of a “very strong” El Niño during the October–December peak to 81%, and gave a 97% chance the phenomenon will persist through early spring 2027.
It’s pretty extreme. Not unprecedented, but very unusual.
Current state
El Niño formed only in June 2026 but has already progressed from weak to moderate, with no signs of slowing. Ocean temperatures in the critical central and eastern equatorial Pacific are at or near record highs for this time of year, a situation partly amplified by human‑caused climate change.
This is not a run‑of‑the‑mill El Niño.
Swain noted the event is breaking records for this time of year and is occurring atop considerable background warming from fossil‑fuel burning. He described El Niño as a kind of thermostat that releases years of accumulated subsurface heat into the atmosphere, warming the entire planet.
- El Niño forms, initially weak.
- Strengthens to moderate; ocean temperatures near record highs.
- 81% chance of very strong El Niño, ranking among largest on record (peak through December).
- 97% chance El Niño persists through early spring.
Potential impacts
A “very strong” classification does not guarantee proportionally extreme weather, but it significantly raises the odds, said Emily Becker of the University of Miami, who works with the CPC. The most notable effects, including severe droughts, heavy downpours and intense heat waves, are expected in the northern hemisphere autumn and winter. The southern U.S. is likely to see a rainier winter, while the northern U.S. and Canada face a higher chance of warmer conditions. Drier weather is more probable in Indonesia, and the eastern Pacific is forecast to be warmer and wetter.
Historical context
Meteorologists are already drawing comparisons to the 1997–1998 El Niño, which the World Bank linked to 23 000 deaths from weather disasters, increased poverty in some nations and government costs totalling up to $45 billion. Some scientists think the current event could end up even stronger.
