Putin ready for three-way talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready to resume the three-way contacts with the United States and Ukraine that took place in the past. He told Pavel Sarubin, a Kremlin-friendly correspondent for Russian state television, that this had been agreed after Witkoff met him in St Petersburg on Wednesday, 21 October. Witkoff had earlier held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European representatives. The Kremlin put the meeting with Putin at about three hours. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy adviser, said the round would focus on building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends, naming 10 November as the start, while other reports put the talks in mid-November.

“We have agreed that we are ready to resume our three-way contacts.”

Ceasefire rejected and territorial claims

Putin framed the planned talks around a final settlement rather than an interim arrangement tied to a halt in fighting, which means he again turned down a ceasefire. He also denied that the Russian-occupied eastern regions belong to Ukraine, calling them part of historical Russia. Zelensky told Fox News he was prepared to freeze the war along the current front line under certain conditions, but Moscow rejects a freeze of that kind. Russian forces keep up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, many of them aimed at the energy infrastructure. Ushakov also said the matter was heading toward an end to the war, though he did not say what that view rested on.

Analysts see tactics and a US election motive

Christian Mölling, a senior adviser at the Brussels think tank European PolicyCenter, expects little from the talks. He said reports of direct talks had come up again and again over the past two or three years.

“We were at this point, where there were reports of direct talks, again and again over the past two or three years.”

In his view the Trump family is trying to push through a deal with Russia before the midterm elections on 3 November, when Republicans could lose their majorities in both the Senate and the House according to forecasts. Tatiana Stanowaja, founder of the analysis house R.Politik, wrote on X that Moscow treats the process as a tactical exercise. Ben Hodges, the former commander of US forces in Europe, told the RND that peace is not in sight and that Russia has made not a single concession. He said the Trump administration had sent two real estate agents rather than diplomats, and that Europe had not been invited to the talks.

Leverage in Washington and Moscow

On Wednesday, 21 October, Trump said in Washington that the two sides may be as close to a settlement as ever, a claim Hodges called ridiculous. In recent weeks the US restricted the Starshield system, which runs on American technology and is used by the Ukrainian army, and stopped sharing real-time data on missiles flying in from Russia. It also became known that Washington had held back deliveries of air defence missiles. RP Online notes that Trump faces high petrol prices, the Iran war and historically low approval ratings, and that he recently suspended sanctions against Russia after a diesel deal. Ukraine can now buy weapons through the NATO procurement agency, a step RP Online welcomes as the winter war puts pressure on Ukraine's energy system.

What comes next

Putin wants a three-way meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, which takes place on 18 and 19 November. Trump said on Monday, 19 October, that he was open to it, but no meeting has been agreed. RP Online reports that the mid-November round could take place in Abu Dhabi and would resume technical-level work of the kind held at the start of this year. Russia and Ukraine still disagree on the front line and on security guarantees.