Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg

Steve Witkoff, the envoy Donald Trump relies on for relations with Russia, met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October, a day after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders in Oslo on 20 October. The Kremlin said the talks lasted about three hours and that none of the participants made statements immediately afterwards. At the start of the meeting, filmed for television, Witkoff said he hoped to address the resumption of trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, which would allow technical teams to discuss the next steps toward a peace deal. Putin thanked Trump and Witkoff for their efforts to end the war. Witkoff also welcomed the release of Stephen Hubbard, a retired professor held in prison since 2022 and accused of acting as a mercenary in the Ukrainian ranks, as reported by La Vanguardia.

Talks could resume in November

The Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters by telephone that Putin is, in principle, ready to resume trilateral negotiations with the United States and Ukraine. The timing differs between reports: eldiario.es cites Ushakov pointing to around 10 November, while Deutsche Welle and ABC report mid-November. According to Ushakov, the main topic would be building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends. The last trilateral rounds were held in January and February in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, and they have been on hold since the start of the US military operation in Iran. Ushakov also said Witkoff had briefed Putin on the Oslo consultations, and that the new positions agreed by Kyiv and the Europeans contained little of substance. Deutsche Welle reports that the Iran war, a diesel supply deal for the United States and other bilateral projects were also discussed.

Zelensky proposes freezing the front line

Zelensky said he was willing to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current front lines as an initial step toward a permanent end to the fighting, while still seeking security guarantees from the United States and its allies. Asked by Fox News whether he would accept a deal that leaves Ukraine with 75% or more of its territory, he answered yes. He argued that freezing the map is the real way to end the war, and described a ceasefire as stopping the deaths, echoing Trump's phrase freeze and stop. Zelensky said Ukraine would then turn to Trump and European allies to request security guarantees. He also insisted that Ukraine must be part of any negotiation, and that talks should not be held about Ukraine without Ukraine. Putin has repeatedly rejected a ceasefire, and Moscow has floated a three-way meeting between Russia, China and the United States.

Pressure from Washington on Kyiv

Trump has grown more openly frustrated with Kyiv, as the White House wants Ukraine to stop strikes on Russian refineries, which Trump views as harmful to the US economy ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November. Zelensky has not heeded that request. Over the past week, according to La Vanguardia, the Pentagon has begun restricting intelligence sharing, Starlink service in Ukraine has not been running at full capacity, and reports have circulated that deliveries of Patriot interceptors have been frozen. In the same period Trump agreed to buy Russian diesel again, lifted a package of sanctions imposed on Moscow, and favoured direct dialogue with the Kremlin. Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Tuesday night that the Oslo meeting, in which he took part, had produced real progress. Ushakov has also floated a possible first meeting of the leaders of China, Russia and the United States, on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Shenzhen next month.