Putin opens the door to talks in November

Russian President Vladimir Putin told US envoy Steve Witkoff that Moscow is willing to resume negotiations with Ukraine in November, under US mediation, according to Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov. The talks have been stalled since February. Ushakov said the parties could return to trilateral talks around 10 November, focusing on a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict. The meeting in St Petersburg lasted about three hours, and Putin thanked Donald Trump and Witkoff for their efforts to end the war, the Kremlin said.

Witkoff had reached St Petersburg a day after meeting Volodymyr Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian leaders in Oslo on Tuesday, 20 October, with Jared Kushner joining by video. He briefed Putin on the outcome of those consultations. Ushakov said Putin heard the new positions and ideas agreed by Kyiv and the Europeans, but that they did not contain much that was useful for resolving the Ukraine conflict. Stubb said on Tuesday evening that the Oslo meeting, in which he took part, had shown real progress.

Zelensky offers a freeze on the front line

Zelensky called for a pause in the fighting as the starting point for negotiations, describing a ceasefire or a freeze of current lines as the minimum Ukraine expects from Russia. In a Fox News interview, asked whether he would accept a deal that kept current borders with Ukraine holding 75% or more of its territory, he answered yes. He insisted that any peace deal must include Ukraine and that Kyiv would then turn to Trump and European leaders to request security guarantees. Trump had said on 11 October that Russia and Ukraine agreed a ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure, but Russia continued to strike the power grid. Almost five years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, the two sides remain deeply divided on terms, and their armies continue fighting with no significant advances by either side.

Starlink dispute strains Washington and Kyiv

Relations between Washington and Kyiv have been tense for about a week. Ukrainian authorities accuse the United States of no longer supporting the country sufficiently, and have even suggested Washington was helping Moscow in the context of a deal on Russian diesel supplies. Kyiv also accused Washington of deliberately reducing the performance of Starshield, the SpaceX satellite system critical to Ukrainian military communications. Zelensky said Starlink and Starshield services remain limited and that Marco Rubio told him he would work with his team to resolve the situation. The Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk ordered the limitation of Starshield services in Ukraine, although Musk had earlier said any restriction would ultimately have been decided by Trump. Rubio, speaking to reporters on an official visit to India, said the president had no role in decisions by Starlink, Starshield or Musk and that Washington had no prior knowledge of the matter.

Next steps

Rubio called the Witkoff contacts positive, saying there was nothing unexpected and that the ideas could now be shared with the Russian side. He said the core of the negotiations concerns the Donbas areas that Russia claims. Norway's prime minister told NRK that Witkoff planned to return to Oslo for further consultations after his trip to Russia, and said he believed Russia may be looking for diplomatic opportunities. Rubio said he expected Sergei Lavrov to attend a G20 meeting in Atlanta next week but did not confirm it, and that Putin might also attend the G20 summit in Miami in December, again without confirmation. Trump has invited Russia to take part in meetings held in the United States.