Brazil prepares for general election as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face tight race

A polarised presidential contest

Brazilians will vote on Sunday, October 4, in general elections that pit President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The election decides more than 1,650 offices across the country, including the presidency, all seats in the Chamber of Deputies, one third of the Senate, and governors in all 27 states. Polling indicates a tight contest between the two leading candidates, with observers pointing toward a second round runoff on October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro represents the conservative movement led by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest for health reasons following a coup conviction carrying a sentence between 17 and 27 years depending on court filings. A victory for the younger Bolsonaro could open avenues for a congressional amnesty or an executive pardon for his father and roughly 1,400 others convicted over the January 2023 unrest in Brasília.

Geopolitical alignment and external relations

The ballot will determine Brazil's foreign policy trajectory and its relationship with the United States. While Lula advocates multilateral diplomacy and domestic welfare expansion through programs like Bolsa Família and Minha Casa, Flávio Bolsonaro pledges tax cuts, deregulation, and entry into Donald Trump's Shield of the Americas initiative. Two weeks prior to the vote, the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin) classified the risk of United States interference in the election as critical, citing Washington's strategic aim to curb Chinese influence over regional resources and infrastructure. United States President Donald Trump addressed the election on Thursday without issuing an official endorsement.

I am following them very closely. It is a very important country. The people of Brazil are fantastic.

A year earlier, the United States administration submitted twenty demands to Brasília in exchange for lowering 50% tariffs imposed after the legal proceedings against the former president.

Religious divisions and viral campaigning

Religious alignment forms a central divide in the campaign, with polling from Quaest indicating stronger Catholic support for Lula and Evangelical backing for Flávio Bolsonaro. Demographic data from a Quaest study for the Institute of Religious Studies shows that 50% of Brazilians aged 16 and older identify as Catholic, while 29% identify as Evangelical.

The final days of campaigning focused on a viral social media rumor originated by satirist Antonio Tabet, which falsely claimed that Flávio Bolsonaro intended to remove the patron saint title from Our Lady of Aparecida. The claim generated 2.4 million digital mentions and prompted intervention by the Superior Electoral Court to block related online posts. Flávio Bolsonaro rejected the allegation during campaign appearances.

I respect all religions and also those who have no religion.

Speaking in Belém, Lula directly addressed the religious dispute.

As long as I am president of the Republic, nobody will make fun of Our Lady of Aparecida. You have to learn to respect all religions.

Legislative balance and the centrão

Beyond the presidency, the composition of the National Congress will shape the next administration's legislative capacity. International relations professor Carolina Moehlecke of Getúlio Vargas University noted that conservative parties are poised to secure substantial strength across legislative chambers and state governorships.

The tendency is that Congress and the Senate will be mostly right-wing and that many governors will be right-wing.

Regardless of whether Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins the executive branch, governance will require negotiations with the non-ideological centrão bloc, which routinely trades votes for cabinet ministries and budgetary allocations. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would further consolidate conservative dominance across South America, leaving leftist administrations primarily in Mexico and Uruguay following conservative electoral victories in seven consecutive regional contests. A new term for Lula would leave the Brazilian executive operating in a conservative legislative environment domestically and among neighbouring states.